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000
FXUS61 KLWX 250737
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
337 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will return today and Friday. A warm front will
lift into the area this weekend bringing a significant warm up
early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation
arrives with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A reinforcing shortwave is currently moving across northern
Virginia and heading toward the southern half of the Delmarva
Peninsula. This shortwave will give yesterday`s cold front a
little nudge farther south early this morning.

High pressure will build to our north today and tonight. As the
high moves to the east, winds will become more northeasterly
this morning, then easterly this afternoon, finally
southeasterly by late tonight. Today and tonight will be dry.
High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today and tonight
with highs in the 50s and lows in the middle to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A mix of sun and clouds expected Friday with increasing clouds
in the southwest. Highs Friday will not be as chilly as today,
but mainly reach near 60 to lower 60s in most places. Lows
Friday night will drop into the 40s and should not be as chilly
as tonight. The next chance for showers will come Friday night
as warm advection ensues aloft ahead of a system over the center
of the country and its associated warm front.

High pressure will continue to nudge to the southeast on
Saturday. The warm front is expected to push farther east and
northeast during the day and bring a few showers mainly along
and west of the Blue Ridge. Highs on Saturday will range from
the upper 50s and lower 60s north of I-66 with middle to upper
60s to the south of this corridor. Saturday night`s lows a few
degrees milder.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep ridging builds across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic states
Sunday into Monday. Dry conditions, and very warm to near record
warmth is likely across the area. Highs reach the upper 70s to low
80s Sunday, and mid to upper 80s Monday. A few spots could reach 90F
Monday afternoon. Mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
especially Monday night.

Models are in a good agreement for Tuesday, indicating a cold front
sweeping through the area in the afternoon to early evening. Given
the building heat for 2-3 days, there is likely to be modest
instability for thunderstorms even with dew points in the upper 50s
to low 60s. Forcing along the cold front is likely to generate
isolated to scattered thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

This cold front brings little relief from the warmth as highs still
reach the lower 80s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through Friday night. A brief period
of two to three hours of patchy drizzle or patchy fog near CHO
could lead to slight reductions to MVFR or IFR in terms of
ceiling later Thursday night or early Friday morning. Winds
northeast, becoming east by this afternoon. Winds Friday will
be out of the southeast.

A warm front lifts into the area Saturday providing a few
spotty showers to terminals west of the corridor. Outside of the
showers expect extra mid and high level clouds from time to
time with southerly winds gusting 20 to 25 kts.

VFR conditions expected Sunday into Monday, with mostly dry
conditions. South to southwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs remain in effect through this morning. Sub-SCA northeast,
then easterly winds expected this afternoon. Sub-SCA southeast
winds are expected Friday, though channeling is possible late
in the day.

Winds could reach SCA for a few hours both Saturday and Sunday.
A warm front will lift across the waters Saturday changing the
winds toward more of a southerly direction.

South to southwest winds prevail Sunday into the start of next week,
with mostly dry conditions across the local waters. Southerly
channeling is possible, which could result in a few hours of near-
SCA conditions during the afternoon to evening each day.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A prolonged period of northeast to east, then southeast to south
winds through the weekend is going to cause water levels to rise
across the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac River. Starting later
this morning, sensitive locations at Annapolis and Straits Point
will reach Action Stage. The evening high tide being the
astronomically lower of the day will likely stay out of minor
flooding, though still reach Action Stage.

The first impactful high tide cycle is expected to be Friday
morning. Coastal Flood Watches are in effect for Annapolis and
Straits Points as moderate coastal flooding is possible at that
time. Other spots could reach minor flood stage, which would require
additional Coastal Flood Advisories. Additional periods of coastal
flooding are likely over the weekend as southerly winds persist, and
many locations approach or reach minor flood stage.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ014.
     Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning
     for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ530-
     531-536-539-540-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ532>534-537-
     541-543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ538.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR
MARINE...KLW/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KRR