372
FXUS61 KLWX 310757
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
357 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the Mid-Atlantic region
through Saturday before moving offshore. Mostly dry conditions and a
warmup will ensue through the early weekend before showers and
thunderstorms return late Sunday into early next week. The high will
remain offshore through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A much cooler airmass is being observed across the area early
this morning. Some spots along the Allegheny Front have been in
the upper 20s to low 30s in isolated areas. Otherwise, low to
mid 30s will be most common around there with 40s to low 50s
further east towards the I-95 corridor. Frost Advisories remain
in effect across the Allegheny Front through 8 AM this morning.

High pressure will continue to settled nearby or overhead today with
abundant sunshine across the region. Highs will climb into the low
to mid 70s for most with 60s in the mountains. By tonight, cooler
temperatures will return with 40s expected along and west of the
Blue Ridge, with 50s more common further east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions continue into Saturday with a return of some high
cirrus clouds around. A gradual warmup is expected with afternoon
highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will remain
light out of the south throughout the day. By Saturday night, clouds
will continue to increase from the west with dry conditions expected
and overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s for most of the area.

By Sunday, low-level moisture will increase thanks to a series of
shortwaves that will impact the Mid-Atlantic through early next
week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible on Sunday, moving in from west (early) to east (later).
Overall, any storms should behave in terms of intensity but cannot
completely rule out some gusty winds or hail with any storms that
strengthen. Winds out of the southwest will strengthen during the
day, with 15 to 20 knot gusts possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak upper trough will depart offshore on Monday, leaving us under
low-amplitude upper level ridging for Monday into Tuesday.
Instability is expected to be limited both days, and there won`t be
much synoptic scale forcing for ascent, so conditions are expected
to remain mainly dry. High temperatures both days are forecast to be
in the low-mid 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s.

As we move toward the middle of the week, upper troughing and an
associated surface cold front will start to dive southeastward from
the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes, and eventually the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Spread in model guidance starts to increase
during this time period, with some solutions showing the trough
closing off into an upper low and becoming cut off from the main
belt of westerlies to our north. This casts some uncertainty in
both the temperature and precipitation forecast, but most guidance
favors increasing chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for the terminals through the first half
of the weekend. Dry conditions are expected for the terminals during
this time thanks to an area of high pressure nearby or overhead.
Northerly winds may be a bit gusty (15-20 knots) for a short period
this afternoon before subsiding. Winds will become southerly and
light on Saturday. Sub-VFR conditions may briefly mix into the area
late Sunday ahead of an approaching disturbance poised to bring
showers and thunderstorms back to the terminals Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on both Monday and Tuesday.
Winds will be light out of the north to northwest on Monday, and
light out of the southeast on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA winds are expected through a majority of today with gusts up to
20 knots out of the north. These winds will begin to subside later
today and into tonight. Sub-SCA winds are expected through early
Sunday before some gusty southerly winds pick back up along with
isolated showers and thunderstorms that may cross the waters later
in the day on Sunday.

Sub-SCA northerly winds are expected on Monday. Winds should turn
southeasterly on Tuesday and remain sub-SCA in nature.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001.
VA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ503.
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ501-505.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADM
NEAR TERM...ADM
SHORT TERM...ADM
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...KJP/ADM
MARINE...KJP/ADM