698
FXUS61 KLWX 021901
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
301 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak low pressure will track east from the Ohio River Valley
tonight passing through the area Monday. Dry conditions briefly
return Tuesday as weak high pressure builds back into the
region. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday through
Friday as a series of fronts cross the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Several shortwave disturbances will move eastward across the
area tonight through Monday. This will lead to isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms mainly west of
the Blue Ridge early this afternoon before spreading east
toward the metros this evening and into the overnight hours.
Southwest winds will run 5 to 15 mph with highs in the mid to
upper 70s and low 80s. Any convection will wane late tonight
into Monday due to upper level ridging nearby. Lows tonight will
fall back into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Much of the same weather conditions are expected Monday as low
pressure slowly pivots offshore. Still maintained slight chance to
chance PoPs on Monday given the residual low-level moisture
lingering around. Highs will continue to climb into the low 80s for
the lower elevations with mid to upper 70s more common in the
mountains. Overnight lows Monday night will drop down into the upper
50s to low 60s with mostly dry conditions.

Brief high pressure and weak upper level ridging will settle back
over the region Tuesday. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary associated
with the area of low pressure from earlier in the week will stall
across southwest and eastern VA. The front will eventually become
parallel with fairly zonal upper level flow aloft yielding
additional shower and thunderstorm chances mainly in areas west of
the Blue Ridge and south of the I-64 corridor Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The bulk of Tuesday should remain dry given the weakened
influence of high pressure overhead. Highs Tuesday will remain in
the upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Lows Tuesday night will fall back
into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s as low level moisture returns.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

A potent upper level trough will gradually dive south into the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region Wednesday with a strong cold front
cutting east through the Ohio River Valley and a warm front lifting
north into the Mid-Atlantic region.

06z/12z guidance continues to show consistency in regards to a warm
frontal boundary impacting the area midweek. The bulk of the
synoptic and ensemble guidance shows a fairly progressive warm
frontal boundary lifting into the area Wednesday afternoon and
evening before pushing northward as the cold front advances east
from the Ohio River Valley. Synoptic lift will increase as a result
of the front combined with increasing low level moisture off the
Gulf of Mexico to lend a hand in more organized and widespread
convection across the region. Model soundings hint at this as well
with reasonable instability available especially in areas south of I-
66/US-50 and west of I-81 where the front looks to reside.
Convection will likely linger into the overnight hours given the
unstable airmass in place and incumbent cold front approaching from
the Ohio River Valley.

The cold front looks to advance toward the Appalachians Thursday
before crossing the area Thursday night into Friday. Models continue
to show subtle differences in regards to the timing of the front and
how much convection will occur. The probability for severe weather
remains fairly low which aligns with current thinking from SPC, CSU
learning machine probabilities, and CIPS analogues. We`ll continue
to monitor this threat in the coming days. What we do know is that
shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain fairly widespread
during this period especially within the afternoon and evening
hours.

The front kicks east Friday, but is followed by a deep upper level
low/trough kicking east from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.
Additional pieces of shortwave energy will likely pivot around the
upper level low and the digging trough to produce additional chances
for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.
Another cold front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday
next week bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures will remain at or above average at the start of the
period before dipping late in the week and into the weekend with the
upper level trough nearby.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...


Brief MVFR cigs are possible late tonight into early along with
the possibility of a few showers. Weak low pressure will
approach from the Ohio River Valley touching off a few showers
across the terminals this afternoon and evening. Have made a
mention of VCSH at all terminals through 6z tonight. More of
the same can be expected Monday afternoon and evening across the
terminals. Once again winds will remain out of the south and
southwest at 5 to 15 kts. Weak upper level ridging will reduce
precipitation chances across the terminals Tuesday although an
isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. VFR
conditions will continue to prevail as a result.

Higher chances for more widespread restrictions from
shower and thunderstorm activity are possible during the afternoon
and evening hours Wednesday through Friday as multiple pieces of
shortwave energy and a series of fronts push through.


&&

.MARINE...

Sub-SCA level winds are expected through Monday as high pressure
remains nearby. Winds will remain out of the south with intermittent
gusts less than 15 knots. Spotty showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out due to weak low pressure slowly crossing the region.
Cannot completely rule out the need for a Special Marine Warning for
any strong storms later today, but the magnitude and intensity
should be below severe thunderstorm warning criteria.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will be fairly isolated Tuesday with more
organized convection set to impact the waters Wednesday and
Thursday as multiple fronts push through. Special Marine Warnings
cannot be ruled out during this period.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Anomalies will continue to rise over the next few days with
increasing onshore flow allowing some of the more sensitive
sites to be around action stage with an outside chance for minor
tidal flooding.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...LFR/EST
SHORT TERM...LFR/EST
LONG TERM...EST
AVIATION...LFR/EST
MARINE...LFR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST