Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
337 FXUS61 KLWX 091854 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue pushing southeast of the area tonight as upper level troughing pivots over the region. High pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the cold front, leading to mostly dry conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... In the wake of a cold frontal passage this afternoon, winds have shifted from southwesterly to west/northwesterly. Dry air filtering in behind the front will allow for dry conditions this afternoon and into the early evening. As an upper level trough pivots over the area, a disturbance to our north will usher in moisture later this evening. An isolated rain shower cannot be ruled out around 00Z-02Z this evening along the Alleghenies, but dry air should prevent any precipitation from making it east of the Blue Ridge. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s for most with those in the metro areas staying in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will continue pivoting overhead Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds in at the surface. Conditions will primarily be dry each day, however, there is a slight chance of precipitation Monday afternoon as the upper level trough deepens over the area. Precipitation chances are highest for those in the southernmost portions of the forecast area and along the Alleghenies. On Tuesday, a frontal system and surface low pressure draped over the Carolinas will lead to a slight chance of precipitation in the southernmost portions of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with light winds out of the northwest. High temperatures will be in the 60s to 70s with only those in the metro areas possibly reaching 80. Overnight temperatures each night will be in the upper 40s to 50s each night with metro areas staying in the low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will allow for mostly dry conditions on Wednesday. A weak boundary may pass by far western MD and along the Allegheny Front, where an isolated shower/sprinkle may fall. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for the lower elevations with low 70s across the mountainous terrain. Dry conditions continue Thursday into Friday with high pressure slowly moving further offshore and warm, moist southwest flow building in. A warmer airmass will introduce low to mid 90s into the area by Thursday and Friday afternoons ahead of a weak cold front moving in from the west. Cannot rule out a few showers or even isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, especially across western and north-central MD. The cold front passes by early Saturday morning and brings in a reprieve of 90s, with mid to upper 80s expected for the weekend with mostly dry conditions expected. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions today through Tuesday night. As a cold front moves through the area, winds are shifting from southwest to northwest. Winds will remain out of the northwest this afternoon and into the evening, gusting around 20 knots at all terminals. Winds diminish overnight and are expected to remain out of the northwest Monday blowing 5 to 10 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected at KMRB Monday afternoon. Winds diminish further on Tuesday, blowing around 5 knots out of the northwest. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure lingers near the area. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening with winds gusting out of the northwest around 20 knots. Winds diminish tonight through Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 15 knots are possible Monday afternoon in the northern portions of the waters, with winds remaining light Monday night into Tuesday. Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure influences the waters, leading to light southerly flow by Thursday afternoon and evening. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Behind a cold front early this afternoon, winds have become more westerly or north-westerly and have allowed tidal anamolies to lessen with no real threat for coastal flooding over the next several days. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...AVS/ADM MARINE...AVS/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADM