364
FXUS64 KLZK 211048 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
545 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The near term will begin with ridging from the western Gulf Coast
to the southeast United States including Arkansas. Under the
ridge, it will be another day with well above average temperatures
in the lower 90s in central, southern, and northeast sections of
the state. A powerful storm system will track around the ridge
from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through this evening.
The system will try to drag a cold front into the region.

Ahead of the front, it appears thunderstorms will develop from
southwest Missouri into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with
isolated storms possible in western Arkansas. Storms will build
across the northern and central counties through the evening
hours before weakening. Modest instability/shear may yield some
severe weather, although it should be spotty.

As the front sags slowly to the south on Wednesday, data is
showing another cluster of storms/an MCS tracking from
central/eastern Oklahoma into west central/central Arkansas
in the morning. Additional development is possible mainly
in central/southern parts of the state later in the day
and after dark.

While forecast soundings indicate a lot of instability on
Wednesday, and CAPE over 3000 J/kg in some areas, the amount of
severe weather that materializes will depend on morning
clouds/convection and how much warming actually occurs. Also,
shear values do not appear terribly impressive, so instability
will be the main driver. Models are quite a bit cooler Wednesday
than today, and this will tend to limit severe weather. Given
multiple rounds of precipitation, there is a heavy rain/flash
flood concern. Could easily have two to three plus inch amounts,
but the placement is not clear at this point. It may be a little
farther south than currently projected.

The front will still be around as the period ends, and that
will keep the pattern unsettled into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W
flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level
disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued
chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day.

The first upper disturbance will move over AR Thu into Thu
night...with SHRA/TSRA expected. Some SVR convection will be
possible with plenty of instability and enough SHR expected. The
overall storm evolution remains uncertain however...along with some
capping expected with the potential for overnight convection. Even
so...SVR storms will remain possible.

By later in the week and over the weekend...convection will remain
possible...and the threat for some SVR Wx will remain each day.
However...the threat for organized SVR Wx remains uncertain this far
out as details remain unclear on instability/CIN/SHR and
timing/placement of mesoscale features. Even so...will need to pay
attention for the evolution of the SVR threat in the coming days.

With several rounds of convection expected into early next
week...there will be an increased threat for areas of heavy
rainfall. Several inches of rainfall look possible by the end of the
forecast...but exact placement of heaviest rainfall axis remains
uncertain. For now...will hold off on any Flash Flood Watch products
for the long term at this time.

Temps through the period will vary some from day to day...but 70s
and 80s will be likely for highs...with 90s for some areas. Lows
will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected today. There will be some increase in
high clouds this afternoon, along with scattered cumulus clouds
between 4000 and 5000 feet. Winds will be south/southwest at 10
to 15 knots today with 18 to 28 mph gusts at times. Clouds will
thicken tonight as showers and thunderstorms build over northern
and central sections of the state. After midnight, low clouds and
patchy fog will create MVFR/IFR conditions across much of the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  70  83  66 /   0  50  70  80
Camden AR         90  73  87  68 /   0  30  40  40
Harrison AR       87  65  79  63 /  30  50  80  70
Hot Springs AR    90  71  85  66 /  10  40  60  70
Little Rock   AR  92  73  85  70 /   0  50  60  70
Monticello AR     91  73  88  71 /   0  20  30  40
Mount Ida AR      88  71  85  66 /  10  50  70  70
Mountain Home AR  88  67  80  64 /  20  50  80  70
Newport AR        90  71  85  67 /   0  60  70  80
Pine Bluff AR     91  73  87  69 /   0  30  50  60
Russellville AR   90  70  84  66 /  10  50  70  70
Searcy AR         90  70  84  67 /   0  50  70  70
Stuttgart AR      90  73  87  70 /   0  40  50  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...46