541
FXUS64 KLZK 231939
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
239 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Latest observations indicate a few isolated -SHRA in northeast
Arkansas. Very warm and humid conditions were in place, with heat
index values ranging from 105 to 110 across all but northwest
sections of the forecast area.

Moderately unstable conditions were indicated, with 100mb MLCape
values of 2000+ j/kg indicated across most areas.  A cold frontal
boundary was located near the Arkansas/Missouri boundary. Overall
forcing appears weak, but isolated to widely scattered activity will
still be possible through the evening hours.

Again, very warm and humid conditions will prevail across the entire
forecast area on Monday.  Appropriate headlines have been issued.

Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday, with an additional
slight chance for afternoon convective cells.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Different day, same story... We`ve reached the part of Summer where
we are quickly going to run out of ways to say, it will be hot...
Persistence condns and hazardous heat wl cont to headline the long
term fcst thru the end of this week...

Thru the end of this week, mean H500 ridging wl remain in place over
the Cont Divide thru much of the PD. Initially, the primary upper
level high and asctd greater anomalous H500 heights wl remain
displaced to the west of the FA, centered over the Desert S/W
regions, w/ regionally hot and humid condns expected to persist
locally.

Early in the PD, mean upper W-N/Wrly flow wl reside acrs the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region, w/ meager upper flow over the FA. At
the sfc, broad but weak sfc high pressure wl extend across most of
Appalachia towards the Ern coastline, and lee cyclonic sfc flow is
progged to persist over the Cntrl Plains. This pattern wl keep mean
Srly to S/Wrly sfc flow and modest WAA acrs the FA and the greater
Srn Plains thru most of the PD.

Confidence on fcst daily high temps, particularly among NBM guidance
remains high, w/ 80% confidence intervals of 5 degrees or less thru
the end of the week. That being said, daily high temps are set to
reach the mid to upper 90s daily, w/ some areas across Cntrl to Srn
AR approaching or reaching 100 degrees as well, particularly on Tues
aftn, and possibly again by Sat aftn.

Alongside hot aftn temps, sultry humidity levels wl keep maximum
aftn heat index values in excess of 105 to 110 degrees or more area-
wide, thru Wed aftn, w/ covg of heat advisory criteria diminishing
to Wrn and S/Wrn AR on Thurs aftn. In addition to hazardous
afternoon heat, overnight low temps wl keep heat hazard risks
elevated during the nighttime hours as well. Current fcst lows are
set to only fall to the upper 70s, to near 80 degrees in some
locations thru the end of the PD. This wl severely limit overnight
cooling potential, posing a non-stop heat risk.

Some daytime relief is still expected on Wed and Thurs, as a
prominent H500 shortwave/vorticity max is progged to eject thru the
mean W-N/Wrly flow, and drive a round of scattered rain chances,
though relief from rain and asctd cloud cover may not be seen by
everyone, and until later on Wed evng... Did still blend Wed max
temps down slightly to account for potential rain and incrsg cloud
covg. In addition to Wed precip, a weak cdfrnt asctd w/ passing sfc
high pressure overnight Wed into Thurs should allow for Nrly winds
to overspread the region, and provide slightly cooler aftn temps
down in the low 90s.

By Fri, temps wl be on the rise again, w/ the upper closed high
shifting E/wrd fm the Desert S/W, and centering over the Srn Cntrl
US. Stronger perturbed upper flow acrs the Nrn US is expected to
recede towards the US/Canada border. Greater synoptic subsidence via
diff anti-cyclonic VA along the inflection point of upper
ridging/troughing over the Cntrl to Nrn Plains should result in a
strong sfc high developing. This sfc high pressure is progged to
move S/wrd towards the FA late in the PD towards the end of next
weekend. Some discrepancies still remain for now among the long
range guidance, however this looks to be the next best chance for
rain and possibly cooler temps locally.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Best chances for any TSRA will be across the northern 1/4 of the
forecast area through 23z. Otherwise VFR conditions will conitinue
through the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  98  75  97 /   0   0   0  20
Camden AR         76  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
Harrison AR       71  97  74  96 /   0   0   0  20
Hot Springs AR    75 100  76  99 /  10   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  77  99  79  99 /  20   0   0  10
Monticello AR     77  99  77  99 /  10  10   0  20
Mount Ida AR      74  98  74  97 /  10  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  70  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  20
Newport AR        74  98  76  99 /  10   0   0  20
Pine Bluff AR     77  99  77  99 /  10   0   0  10
Russellville AR   75  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         74  99  75  98 /  20   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      77  97  79  98 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ006>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-121>123-130-137-138-
140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...55