Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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212 FXUS64 KLZK 231938 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 238 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Earlier convection has left a rather complex surface pattern across the state, with a number of pockets of low clouds mixed in with clear patches. I suspect a number of residual outflow boundaries remaining in place, although they are difficult to pinpoint. Arkansas will remain in the warm sector tonight with considerable amounts of moisture in place. Aloft, a southwesterly flow will continue, with several minor shortwaves propogating to the northeast thru the flow. Another round of convection is expected overnight, which should stabilize the atmosphere. Heading into tomorrow, the models are forecasting considerable destablization in the warm sector by the afternoon hours, with afternoon CAPE values topping out between 3500-4000 j/kg. However, there are a couple of issues with that. First, it`s difficult to determine how much overnight convection may foul the atmosphere with low clouds and regions of highly stabilized air. This will put a damper on the model forecasts of high instability, at least in places. Also, the higher instability values are all elevated, and a considerable cap may be in place across much of the area. This will likely put a damper on some of the convection tomorrow despite the model forecasts of high instability. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing out of the Plains into the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening, and this will likely act as a trigger for another round of overnight convection, as the front slides into central Arkansas by Saturday morning and stalls. Overnight Friday into Saturday morning may see quite a bit of convection, and potentially heavy rainfall associated with the front. The key takeway from this forecast is that there is high confidence that several rounds of strong (possibly severe) convection across the state thru the shoft term. The timing of these systems is of consierably lower confidence. More than likely, the bulk of the strongest thunderstorm activity will be nocturnal. 53 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 An upper ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico to begin the long term period with southwest flow over Arkansas and an upper low over the Pacific Northwest. The upper low will move across the northern Plains and Great Lakes Sunday and Monday. An upper ridge then builds over the western U.S. Monday night and brings northwest flow to Arkansas Tuesday which continues through Thursday. A cold front will be in the Plains Sunday and move through Arkansas Sunday night with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe Sunday with large hail and damaging winds. Small rain chances continue on Monday and a couple of dry days begin on Tuesday with high pressure settling over the region. A cold front will approach from the north late Wednesday and a bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 68 84 67 87 / 40 50 50 20 Camden AR 67 89 69 89 / 60 10 40 10 Harrison AR 65 83 63 84 / 30 40 30 10 Hot Springs AR 66 86 68 87 / 70 30 60 20 Little Rock AR 69 88 70 89 / 60 50 60 20 Monticello AR 69 90 71 90 / 60 20 50 30 Mount Ida AR 66 85 67 87 / 70 20 50 10 Mountain Home AR 66 82 64 84 / 30 50 30 10 Newport AR 68 85 69 86 / 40 50 50 20 Pine Bluff AR 68 89 70 89 / 70 40 60 30 Russellville AR 67 86 68 87 / 50 30 40 10 Searcy AR 66 86 67 87 / 60 60 60 20 Stuttgart AR 69 87 70 87 / 70 50 60 30 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....51