Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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003 FXUS64 KLZK 250813 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 313 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A somewhat active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term period as a few shortwaves push through the area. As of early this morning...a few thunderstorms are currently pushing through parts of the state. Showers and thunderstorms should come to an end later this morning across northern and central Arkansas. Continued thunderstorm activity will be possible across parts of southern Arkansas through this afternoon. Hail and damaging straight-line winds are most likely with these storms. A break in the unsettled weather is expected late Saturday into Sunday afternoon before additional scattered showers and thunderstorms pop-up across western Arkansas Sunday evening. These storms will be limited in coverage but will once again pose a severe weather threat as they push across the state Sunday evening into early Monday morning. CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe storms and heavy rain. Many locations across the state should prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least Sunday morning with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 To begin, upper NW flow will develop across the Cntrl/Nrn Plains in response to a ridge approaching the Rockies. Surface winds will switch to the N/NE on Monday and drier air will advect into the state with the passage of a cold front. Dry weather is expected to last for a couple days. Rain chances will then creep back into the forecast by mid to late week as upper level disturbances move through background NWrly upper flow. Temperatures should be in the 50s and 60s for lows and 70s to 80s for highs. Dew point temperatures will fall from the mid 60s and mid 70s ahead of the front (short term) to mid 50s and lower 60s behind the front (long term). The combination of lower temperatures and lower dew points will help conditions feel pleasant, at least until moisture moves back into the state by mid to late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 SHRA/TSRA will continue through part of the overnight hours across most terminals. TEMPO groups and VCTS have been written into TAFs to account for uncertainty in coverage. Shower and thunderstorm activity should shift east of the area just before daybreak. Patchy fog will be possible for terminals that clear out and where wind calm. Mostly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through the period with IFR conditions possible for terminals that see heavy rain from thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 72 89 67 / 10 20 30 30 Camden AR 88 71 91 70 / 30 0 10 30 Harrison AR 83 69 88 61 / 0 30 20 10 Hot Springs AR 87 71 90 68 / 10 10 10 30 Little Rock AR 88 74 92 72 / 20 10 20 40 Monticello AR 89 74 92 72 / 50 0 10 50 Mount Ida AR 86 71 89 66 / 10 10 10 30 Mountain Home AR 83 70 89 63 / 0 30 20 20 Newport AR 85 73 90 68 / 20 20 30 40 Pine Bluff AR 88 73 91 71 / 40 0 10 50 Russellville AR 86 71 90 66 / 10 20 10 20 Searcy AR 86 71 91 68 / 20 10 20 40 Stuttgart AR 86 74 91 71 / 30 10 20 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...73