Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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957 FXUS64 KLZK 040742 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 242 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 CAMS guidance continues to advertise a rather unsettled pattern through Wednesday when a cold front finally swings through and brings quiet conditions to close out the short term. Until then, periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast. Convection continues early this morning over western and southwestern sections of the CWA. Storms are elevated in nature and large hail will continue to be the primary concern although a few strong wind gusts can not be ruled out. Earlier CAMS guidance was steadfast in this convection morphing into some type of forward progressing MCS of varying strength and moving it off to the southeast. Latest HRRR solutions have backed off on the development of the MCS but the NAMNST continues to be more aggressive, making this a particularly tricky forecast. Regardless if this MCS pans out and can get established, several short wave troughs will move through the prevailing flow to keep at least chance POPS in the forecast today. Culprit of all of this is an upper level trough over the Northern Rockies this morning. Trough expected to deepen as it moves into the central plains later today and into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. Primary surface reflection will remain in the Canadian Prairie Provinces but will drag a very well defined cold front through the state Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the boundary Tuesday night as it sinks south. Can not rule out some stronger storms along the boundary with gusty winds the primary concern this time. Once again, the HRRR is trying to develop an MCS that would move into SE oklahoma and possibly SW Arkansas. Precipitation chances will end from northwest to southeast in the wake of the front during the day Wednesday as upper ridging builds over the western CONUS placing the CWA in northwest flow aloft. Despite this unsettled weather, temperatures will remain right around normal for this time of year. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80`s with lows ranging from the 60`s to lower 70`s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Long Term: Thursday Thru Monday THURSDAY/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow will continue over Arkansas with a ridge remaining planted across the Four Corners region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a dry cold front will move through the state from north to south during the day on Thursday with sfc high pressure moving into the region behind the frontal boundary late Thursday into the day on Friday with the boundary becoming a stationary front across the Deep South region of the CONUS well to south of the CWA. During the Thursday through Friday Night period, expect overall dry weather conditions with low to nil POPs across the CWA with party cloudy to mostly sunny skies. SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY: In the upper lvls, northwesterly flow remains over Arkansas with a series of shortwaves that will pass through the flow regime as a negatively tilted ridge amplifies over the Western CONUS toward the end of the long-term forecast period. At the sfc, a cold front approaches the state from the north on Saturday into Sunday increasing the chances for POPs across the CWA. On Monday, the cold front will stall as stationary front across the southern portion of Arkansas keeping POPs elevated through the end of the long-term forecast period. During the period of Saturday through Monday, expect numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front will track from north to south across the state becoming stationary during the day Monday. Temperatures with respect to both low and high temperatures over the entire long-term forecast period of Thursday through Monday will be around normal to slightly above average compared to climatological normals for this time of the year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Additional round of convection continues to develop to the west and southwest of the terminals and will impact mainly central TAFS later this morning. More convection can not be ruled out again Tuesday evening but confidence is low with its initiation and placement. Otherwise VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the period with some lower cigs possible around sunrise. Winds will remain generally light and from the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 84 71 87 66 / 50 70 50 0 Camden AR 86 70 86 68 / 40 20 40 10 Harrison AR 82 66 84 63 / 50 80 20 0 Hot Springs AR 83 69 87 66 / 40 40 40 0 Little Rock AR 86 73 89 69 / 40 50 50 0 Monticello AR 87 72 87 70 / 50 30 60 10 Mount Ida AR 84 69 87 66 / 30 40 40 0 Mountain Home AR 82 68 85 63 / 50 80 20 0 Newport AR 86 72 86 67 / 50 70 50 0 Pine Bluff AR 87 72 87 69 / 40 50 50 10 Russellville AR 84 71 88 66 / 40 60 30 0 Searcy AR 86 71 87 66 / 40 60 50 0 Stuttgart AR 86 72 86 70 / 40 50 50 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...56