Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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213 FXUS64 KLZK 172346 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 646 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Light to moderate rain continues over primarily the eastern reaches of the CWA with scattered convection starting to become a little more widespread elsewhere. Area is currently between upper level ridging sitting over the SE CONUS and upper troughing moving into the Pacific NW. Mid level vort max riding along the western periphery of the SE ridge helping to generate some of heavier precipitation over the east with this feature continuing to move off tho the N/NE this evening. Precipitation in general is expected to decrease early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Precipitation coverage will be spotty in nature with amounts generally light except in and near the stronger convection. Moisture will continue to feed into the region with diurnally driven convection expected once again Tuesday afternoon. Aforementioned upper ridge will begin to retrograde on Wednesday with convection much more suppressed as the ridge returns. Much like the past few days, highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Humidity will make heat index values feel slightly higher. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday H500 ridging to the east of the area will build west toward the Southern Plains. This will provide a period of above normal temperatures and no rain to the state. Td values don`t look too out of hand, limiting overall heat index values through Saturday. Toward the weekend, a strong storm system will track from the central Plains to the upper Midwest. The system will try to drag a cold front toward Arkansas, but the front will have difficulty penetrating through the ridge. Even so, moisture will increase a bit ahead of the front, and this may result in isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms next weekend. Heat index values may approach or exceed 105 by Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Scattered thunderstorms continue across southern to central AR this evng based on recent radar mosaic imgry. Expect mainly VCTS w/ some intermittent TSRA at Cntrl and Srn terminals, so have kept and extended TEMPO groups at most sites except for Nrn terminals. In the few hrs after 00Z, expect convective covg to dissipate, and VFR condns should resume area-wide overnight. Incrsg cloud cover should be prevalent fm S/Ern AR, and into Cntrl AR by 12Z Tues mrng, w/ intermittent MVFR CIGs expected at Cntrl terminals, and prevailing MVFR CIGs over S/Ern terminals. Elsewhere, VFR condns should prevail on Tues, w/ Srly winds bcmg strong to gusty at times Tues aftn. /72/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 86 70 87 / 20 20 0 10 Camden AR 71 86 70 88 / 30 20 0 10 Harrison AR 70 86 67 84 / 10 20 0 10 Hot Springs AR 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 0 10 Little Rock AR 75 87 73 90 / 20 20 0 10 Monticello AR 72 87 72 90 / 30 20 0 0 Mount Ida AR 70 87 68 85 / 20 30 0 10 Mountain Home AR 71 86 69 85 / 10 30 0 10 Newport AR 73 87 72 88 / 20 20 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 72 87 71 89 / 30 20 0 0 Russellville AR 72 88 71 87 / 10 30 0 10 Searcy AR 72 87 71 90 / 20 20 0 10 Stuttgart AR 73 86 73 88 / 30 20 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...72