130
FXUS64 KLZK 200502
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A ridge of high pressure in the central and southern Plains will
build in our direction during the near term. Under the ridge,
summer temperatures are expected, with above average readings in
the forecast the next couple of days. Conditions will remain
mostly dry.

As the ridge becomes dominant, large scale troughing will be
noted over the western United States. On the leading edge of the
troughing, a cold front will try to push toward Arkansas from the
northwest tonight/Friday, but will not make it into the state.
Even so, a stray shower or thunderstorm could affect
northern/western sections of the state ahead of the front.

On the heels of the front, yet another cold front will head this
way as the period ends. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop
up north of Little Rock on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

With H500 ridging to the southwest extending northeast over the
state and sfc ridging in place just to the SE, another hot day is
expected on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 90s F appear likely
across parts of the state before the mid-level ridge is forced
southward as a trough moves across the middle of the country.

As the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the area, at the
sfc a cold front will push into the state. While dry conditions will
likely hold out for much of the state on Sunday, some rain chances
will move into the area early next week. Temperatures will be a bit
closer to normal behind the front as well.

Near the end of the period it`s possible that a second H500 trough
could move across the middle of the country with another cold front
set to move through at the sfc. While this could provide additional
cooler air to the state, available 12z model data provides lower
confidence regarding the pattern by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Expect VFR flight category over the entire forecast period from
early Friday morning thru early Saturday morning. Surface winds
across all sites will begin light and variable before becoming
established out of the south-southwest later Friday morning. The
northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK may see vicinity showers on
Friday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  71  92  70 /  10  10  20   0
Camden AR         95  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       94  71  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
Hot Springs AR    97  72  96  71 /   0   0  10   0
Little Rock   AR  95  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     95  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      96  70  96  69 /   0   0  10   0
Mountain Home AR  93  71  91  70 /  10  10  20  10
Newport AR        90  71  90  70 /   0  10  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     94  71  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   96  72  95  71 /   0  10  10   0
Searcy AR         93  71  94  70 /   0  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      93  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74