008
FXUS64 KLZK 260838
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
338 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upper level ridge remains west of Arkansas today providing a
northwest flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east
Thursday and by Thursday night will be over Arkansas.

A cold front will move into the area from the north today. A complex
of thunderstorms, moving into central Missouri currently, will move
through the north and central sections this morning. Another round
of thunderstorms is expected in central and south sections during
the afternoon and evening along the cold front. Some of the
thunderstorms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats. Expect heat indices over 105 degrees in parts of
the river valley and central and south. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for these areas.

Highs today and Thursday will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows
tonight and Thursday night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The upper lvl high pressure that was fixated over the Southwestern
region of the CONUS will elongate and encompass the region over the
Southern Plains and Mid-South regions of the CONUS to begin the long-
term forecast period and the end of the work week. Into the weekend,
a cold front will approach the state from the north elevating the
chances for rain and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon
through the day on Sunday with POP chances remaining at a modest 20
to 40 percent with the declaration that not every location within
the CWA and state of Arkansas will see rainfall during this period.
The need for heat headlines will fluctuate to different parts of the
state from Friday into the weekend as the cold front will offer
another opportunity at brief relief across parts of the CWA, but
unfortunately during the long-term forecast period, no single day
stands out in which heat headlines will likely be completely
removed across the entire state.

Into next week, the center of the upper lvl ridge will become
positioned over Arkansas leading to overall hot and dry condition
rebounding quickly and becoming the highlight of the forecast as
high temperatures across the state will vary from the mid 90s to low
100s on Tuesday. Heat headlines will likely be needed statewide as
we venture into next week with above normal temperatures and
dangerous heat index values returning to the Natural State.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

An upper ridge is just west of Arkansas with northwest flow aloft
over Arkansas. Rain chances will increase Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the area. A line of showers and thunderstorms
is expected to dive south through the morning hours, affecting
most sites into the afternoon. MVFR conditions may accompany the
convection, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds should
shift to the north behind the front and may gust to 20 kts near
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     91  70  90  69 /  80  10   0   0
Camden AR         95  72  92  73 /  30  30  10   0
Harrison AR       89  67  88  69 /  70   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    96  72  92  71 /  30  30  10   0
Little Rock   AR  94  74  92  74 /  60  30   0   0
Monticello AR     93  73  91  74 /  40  40  10   0
Mount Ida AR      94  70  92  71 /  50  30  10   0
Mountain Home AR  89  68  88  69 /  40  10   0   0
Newport AR        91  72  90  71 /  80  20   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     93  73  91  73 /  30  30  10   0
Russellville AR   94  72  92  72 /  70  10   0   0
Searcy AR         93  71  91  71 /  80  20   0   0
Stuttgart AR      92  73  90  74 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ042-043-052>057-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-141-221-222-
230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...51