719
FXUS64 KLZK 190504
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1204 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Weak high pressure remains over Arkansas, with a mix of sun and
fair weather cumulus this afternoon. Given a mostly clear
sky/light wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain,
patchy fog will once again form later tonight into Thursday
morning. The fog will probably be more spotty than the previous
two mornings.

Large scale troughing will be noted over the western United States
during the near term. On the leading edge of the troughing, a
potent storm system will head from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains and eventually Canada Thursday/Friday. As this
happens, a cold front will try to push toward us from the
northwest. It appears the front will not make it, but a stray
shower or thunderstorm could affect northern/western sections of
the state.

Otherwise, ridging in the central and southern Plains will build
in our direction. Under the ridge, summer temperatures are coming,
with above average readings in the forecast the next couple of
days. There will also be little to no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

With H500 ridging to the southwest extending northeast over the
state and sfc ridging in place just to the SE, a couple of very warm
days are expected at the start of the period. Highs in the lower to
mid 90s F appear likely across parts of the state before the mid-
level ridge is forced southward as a trough moves across the middle
of the country.

As the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the area, at the
sfc a cold front will push into the state. While dry conditions will
likely hold out for much of the weekend, some rain chances will move
into the state early next week. Temperatures will be a bit closer to
normal behind the front as well.

Near the end of the period it appears a second H500 trough should
move across the middle of the country with another cold front set to
move through at the sfc. This could provide additional cooler air to
the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are to be expected over the majority of the forecast
period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning
across all sites. The only exception will be the possibility of
patchy fog that may drop all sites to MVFR flight category with a
brief period of IFR possible just prior to sunrise and into the
early morning hours on Thursday. However, model confidence continues
to wane toward MVFR flight category. Other than the dropping VSBY,
no other changes to flight category are expect and VFR conditions
will persist after Thursday morning for all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     88  67  90  69 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       90  67  93  68 /   0  10  10  10
Hot Springs AR    94  69  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     92  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      93  67  96  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  89  67  92  69 /   0  10  10  10
Newport AR        87  65  89  69 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     91  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   92  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         90  66  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
Stuttgart AR      89  67  91  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...74