634
FXUS64 KLZK 240732
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
232 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through much of the short term
period as several shortwaves push through the area. As of early this
morning...a few thunderstorms are currently popping up over portions
of southern and central Arkansas with additional coverage across the
state expected through the morning and afternoon hours today. Hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible with these
storms.

Unsettled weather is expected to continue into early Sunday with
strong to severe storms possible. Coverage is uncertain at this
time...although it appears most parts of the state could see on and
off showers.

CAMs supports this idea of multiple rounds of strong to severe
storms and heavy rain. Many locations across the state should
prepare for on and off showers and thunderstorms through at least
Sunday morning with some severe storms likely. QPF amounts will be
the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is expected.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated to continue into
portions of the long term period. To begin, WSW H500 flow will be in
place, with upper level disturbances traversing through the flow at
roughly 18 to 24 hour intervals. Near the surface, AR will reside
entirely within the warm sector bound by low pressure over the Cntrl
Plains and a surface cold front draped back to the SW into portions
of Wrn TX.

Shower and thunderstorm chances should be greatest Sunday
night/Monday morning over much of the state with chances lingering
into Monday night/Tuesday morning over Srn half of AR. Some storms
could become locally strong to severe with large hail and damaging
winds the primary hazards. Outside of these aforementioned periods
of time, showers and thunderstorms will be possible but PoP chances
are much lower. QPF amounts should remain less than half an inch to
one inch.

Beyond Monday, upper NW flow will develop and this will help ridging
move into the region. Surface winds should switch from the S/SW to
N/NE and drier air will advect into the state in the wake of a N to
S moving cold front. This will inhibit rainfall across the state
beyond this period, at least for a couple/few days before surface
winds switch back to the SE and low-level moisture increases.

Temperatures through the period will be in the 60s and 70s for lows
with upper 80s to lower 90s for highs. After the front moves
through, lows will be in the 50s and 60s with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s. Dew point temperatures will fall from the mid 60s and
mid 70s ahead of the front to mid 50s and lower 60s in the wake of
the front. The combination of lower temperatures and lower dew
points will help conditions feel pleasant once again.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through the overnight hours will
additional showers and thunderstorms moving into the state from
LA/TX. These showers will likely affect central and southern
terminals but VCSH has been written into TAFs to express
uncertainty on timing and coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  67  84  72 /  60  50  10  30
Camden AR         88  69  89  71 /  30  40  10   0
Harrison AR       83  61  84  69 /  40  30  10  40
Hot Springs AR    86  67  88  71 /  30  50  10  10
Little Rock   AR  87  71  89  74 /  40  70  20  20
Monticello AR     90  71  90  74 /  30  50  30   0
Mount Ida AR      85  66  87  71 /  20  40  10  20
Mountain Home AR  83  63  83  69 /  50  40  10  40
Newport AR        84  68  86  73 /  60  60  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     88  70  89  73 /  50  60  20  10
Russellville AR   85  67  87  72 /  30  50  10  20
Searcy AR         85  68  87  71 /  50  60  20  20
Stuttgart AR      86  71  88  74 /  60  70  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...73