286
FXUS64 KLZK 222005
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
305 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

An upper ridge continues over the southeast U.S. with several low
pressure systems along the northern U.S. border. One upper low will
move northeast through the Great Lakes as another one moves into the
Rockies Thursday. This low then moves into the upper Midwest Friday
as the ridge in the south flattens out.

Showers and thunderstorms moved into Arkansas from Oklahoma but have
weakened as they moved east. The cold front has moved south into
central Arkansas. The atmoshpere remains primed for thunderstorms
along and south of this boundary. The highest risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be in the southwest
and central sections which is under an Enhanced Risk for severe
thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats with the strongest storms.

Several short waves will move through the state through Friday
bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Several
inches of rain are expected through the end of the week. Rain
chances continue Thursday across the state and will be mostly in the
northeast half of the state Friday.

Lows tonight will be in the 60s and in the mid to upper 60s Thursday
night. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and in
the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Unsettled weather is forecast to continue in the long term and the
holiday weekend. Aloft, a weak upper level trough will be in place
across the western CONUS leaving the region in southwest flow. Along
this flow, numerous upper level disturbances will move through the
region and bring several rounds of precipitation. At the surface a
nearly stationary frontal boundary will be draped across the state
which will become the focus for severe storms. A moist and unstable
air mass will be in place to the south of that boundary making
severe weather possible on Saturday and again on Sunday across the
region. At this point, it is hard to pin down the specifics but will
bear watching in future forecast updates.

Models are generally in good agreement that a general pattern change
will finally happen late Monday into Tuesday with the aforementioned
upper level trough shifting to the east and an upper level ridge
building in over the western CONUS. This will help to finally drive
the front well through the state and bring a return of northwesterly
flow to the region.  This will result in drier more stable air to
move into Arkansas. How long this period of dry air will persist
remains a point of contention between the models with the ECMWF
producing a drier solution.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the area. New
thunderstorm initiation is taking place in eastern Arkansas.
Expect additional thunderstorms through the period as the front
across the state will be nearly stationary but waffle around from
time to time. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  83  68  85 /  80  70  70  50
Camden AR         66  85  68  89 /  70  50  50  10
Harrison AR       62  80  65  83 /  70  50  60  30
Hot Springs AR    66  84  67  86 /  80  70  70  10
Little Rock   AR  69  86  71  89 /  80  80  70  20
Monticello AR     69  88  71  91 /  70  50  50  10
Mount Ida AR      65  83  65  85 /  80  60  70  10
Mountain Home AR  63  80  65  83 /  70  50  60  40
Newport AR        67  83  68  85 /  80  70  70  50
Pine Bluff AR     68  86  69  89 /  70  70  60  20
Russellville AR   66  83  67  85 /  80  70  60  20
Searcy AR         66  85  68  87 /  80  70  70  40
Stuttgart AR      69  84  71  88 /  80  80  70  30

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...51