Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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831 FXUS64 KLZK 212256 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 556 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across northern and northeast Arkansas through late this evening, as a short-wave trough moves across the southern Midwest region and northern Arkansas. The main threats with this activity will be heavy rain with potential for localized flooding. The aforementioned short-wave trough is moving along anticyclonic flow associated with a widespread High situated across much of the southern and southeastern CONUS. With the exception of north/northeast AR, the rest of the state is experiencing mainly hot and dry conditions through much of the weekend, with high temperatures in the 90s expected. A heat advisory is in effect across much of central to western portions of the CWA through Saturday evening, with heat index values between 105-110F forecast. Showers and potential for storms will return by Sunday afternoon, across northern portions of the state, spreading across much of the rest of Arkansas by Monday midday, as a cold front pushes eastward across the region. Widespread cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures on the lower end across western and northern Arkansas Monday, in the lower 70s to mid 80s. At this time, it looks like central, southern and eastern Arkansas will have time to warm up to the 90s Monday, before cloud cover and rain spread into these areas. We can all look forward to much cooler air in the long term period next week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Significant changes are expected across the state at the start of the period. H500 trough across the Central Plains will continue its way toward the Great Lakes which will compress the srn H500 ridge southward. At the sfc, a cold front will be making its way across the state. This front will usher in cooler temperatures. Through the middle to later part of next week, a second mid-level trough looks to dive S-SE from the Northern Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley. As this occurs it may intensify and become cutoff somewhere in the vicinity of the state as H500 ridges flank it to the east and west. At the sfc, ridging will settle in from the Great Lakes S-SW toward the state. This will lead to a period of fairly cool temperatures and some occasional rain chances/periodic cloud cover. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Some convection could still impact the NRN terminals this evening...but most area should be dry overnight. Some additional convection looks to redevelop for Sun late morning into the afternoon hrs...mainly across NRN AR. Chances will then drop SE Sun night into Mon beyond this TAF period. Winds should remain less than 10 kts sustained. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 71 91 70 83 / 20 30 20 50 Camden AR 70 93 70 89 / 0 0 0 20 Harrison AR 71 88 66 73 / 30 50 50 80 Hot Springs AR 73 94 71 87 / 20 10 10 40 Little Rock AR 74 94 73 88 / 20 10 10 30 Monticello AR 72 94 71 91 / 10 0 0 10 Mount Ida AR 71 93 70 85 / 0 10 10 60 Mountain Home AR 70 89 67 76 / 30 50 50 70 Newport AR 71 91 70 85 / 20 20 20 40 Pine Bluff AR 71 94 71 89 / 20 0 0 20 Russellville AR 73 94 71 84 / 20 20 20 60 Searcy AR 70 93 70 86 / 20 10 10 40 Stuttgart AR 72 93 72 88 / 20 0 10 20 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...71 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...62