Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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512 FXUS64 KLZK 151727 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. There is a small chance for some pop-up showers and thunderstorms across northern locations Saturday afternoon, therefore PoPs have be drawn in to about 20 percent. Severe weather is not expected at this time. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable through much of the period. Temperatures are expected to be HOT during the period with highs in the 90s...some southern locations could reach 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Humidity will make heat index feel slightly warmer with values in the mid 90s to near 103. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 An upper ridge will be situated over the SERN CONUS at the start of the long term period...with SW flow aloft over the SRN Rockies into the NRN Plains. AR will be between these two features...allowing a weak upper wave to lift north from the Gulf along the WRN periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Chances for convection will increase on Mon as this upper disturbance lifts over AR...with best POPs expected during the peak heating of the afternoon hrs on Mon. Chances for convection will again be seen on Tue...but coverage will be lesser and more of the regular diurnally driven convective summer- time pulse nature. By later in the week...the upper ridge to the east of AR will gradually elongate and lift back to the NW...with AR under more influence of this upper ridging. Chances for afternoon convection look to decrease as a result...and temps warming from the cooler conditions earlier in the period where clouds and precip were more expansive. Even with this upper ridge expanding...there will be at least some small potential for afternoon convection each day into the end of the forecast for some portion of the state. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conds are expected to prevail through the period thanks to high pressure aloft and at the surface. Winds will be light, Srly at times, with nearly calm winds overnight. Only daytime Cu is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 72 96 73 87 / 0 10 0 50 Camden AR 72 98 72 87 / 0 0 0 50 Harrison AR 69 92 70 87 / 0 10 0 30 Hot Springs AR 72 97 72 88 / 0 10 0 50 Little Rock AR 75 98 75 88 / 0 10 0 50 Monticello AR 75 98 74 86 / 0 10 10 70 Mount Ida AR 71 95 71 87 / 0 10 0 40 Mountain Home AR 71 93 72 87 / 10 10 0 30 Newport AR 75 98 76 90 / 0 10 0 50 Pine Bluff AR 75 98 74 86 / 0 10 0 60 Russellville AR 73 96 74 89 / 0 10 0 40 Searcy AR 72 97 74 88 / 0 10 0 50 Stuttgart AR 76 96 75 87 / 0 10 0 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...73 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...70