601
FXUS64 KLZK 211750
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1250 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The near term will begin with ridging from the western Gulf Coast
to the southeast United States including Arkansas. Under the
ridge, it will be another day with well above average temperatures
in the lower 90s in central, southern, and northeast sections of
the state. A powerful storm system will track around the ridge
from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through this evening.
The system will try to drag a cold front into the region.

Ahead of the front, it appears thunderstorms will develop from
southwest Missouri into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon, with
isolated storms possible in western Arkansas. Storms will build
across the northern and central counties through the evening
hours before weakening. Modest instability/shear may yield some
severe weather, although it should be spotty.

As the front sags slowly to the south on Wednesday, data is
showing another cluster of storms/an MCS tracking from
central/eastern Oklahoma into west central/central Arkansas
in the morning. Additional development is possible mainly
in central/southern parts of the state later in the day
and after dark.

While forecast soundings indicate a lot of instability on
Wednesday, and CAPE over 3000 J/kg in some areas, the amount of
severe weather that materializes will depend on morning
clouds/convection and how much warming actually occurs. Also,
shear values do not appear terribly impressive, so instability
will be the main driver. Models are quite a bit cooler Wednesday
than today, and this will tend to limit severe weather. Given
multiple rounds of precipitation, there is a heavy rain/flash
flood concern. Could easily have two to three plus inch amounts,
but the placement is not clear at this point. It may be a little
farther south than currently projected.

The front will still be around as the period ends, and that
will keep the pattern unsettled into the long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An active pattern will continue into the long term period as SW/W
flow continues through the weekend. Multiple upper level
disturbances will move over AR in this flow aloft...with continued
chances for convection nearly each day into Memorial Day.

The first upper disturbance will move over AR Thu into Thu
night...with SHRA/TSRA expected. Some SVR convection will be
possible with plenty of instability and enough SHR expected. The
overall storm evolution remains uncertain however...along with some
capping expected with the potential for overnight convection. Even
so...SVR storms will remain possible.

By later in the week and over the weekend...convection will remain
possible...and the threat for some SVR Wx will remain each day.
However...the threat for organized SVR Wx remains uncertain this far
out as details remain unclear on instability/CIN/SHR and
timing/placement of mesoscale features. Even so...will need to pay
attention for the evolution of the SVR threat in the coming days.

With several rounds of convection expected into early next
week...there will be an increased threat for areas of heavy
rainfall. Several inches of rainfall look possible by the end of the
forecast...but exact placement of heaviest rainfall axis remains
uncertain. For now...will hold off on any Flash Flood Watch products
for the long term at this time.

Temps through the period will vary some from day to day...but 70s
and 80s will be likely for highs...with 90s for some areas. Lows
will be in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure is over the southeast U.S. this afternoon with a
cold front located in central Oklahoma. Strong south winds are
ahead of the cold front gusting to 20 to 25 kts. Expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the cold front. This will be
the beginning of a wet period over the next few days as the front
stalls in northwest Arkansas. Thunderstorms will continue into the
morning hours before dissipating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     70  83  66  82 /  50  70  80  60
Camden AR         73  87  68  88 /  30  40  40  30
Harrison AR       65  79  63  80 /  50  80  70  60
Hot Springs AR    71  85  66  84 /  40  60  70  50
Little Rock   AR  73  85  70  85 /  50  60  70  50
Monticello AR     73  88  71  88 /  20  30  40  30
Mount Ida AR      71  85  66  83 /  50  70  70  60
Mountain Home AR  67  80  64  80 /  50  80  70  60
Newport AR        71  85  67  83 /  60  70  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     73  87  69  87 /  30  50  60  40
Russellville AR   70  84  66  83 /  50  70  70  60
Searcy AR         70  84  67  84 /  50  70  70  60
Stuttgart AR      73  87  70  85 /  40  50  70  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...51