885
FXUS64 KMAF 231756
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Current satellite and observations show low clouds have moved into
the area. These clouds will remain through this morning before
scattering out this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will offset
the increased insolation and highs this afternoon should hold below
normal with readings in the 70s to low 80s providing a beautiful
day. The jet stream is centered over the CWA and will provide enough
instability that isolated to widely scattered showers are expected
between the I-10/I-20 corridors later today.

Surface high pressure behind the front quickly sags southeast
providing a return of warmer southeasterly winds overnight. In
addition, increasing subsidence Tuesday behind a departing upper
trough axis will cause temperatures to rebound back into the 80s.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A secondary shortwave trough will dig into the Great Plains amid the
larger longwave troughing across the Great Lakes to southern Great
Plains. This secondary shortwave trough pushes a reinforcing cold
front south through our region early on Wednesday. Continued rain
chances may accompany this front across eastern portions of the
area, but drier and more stable air quickly filters in behind it,
ending rainfall potential. Cooler, below normal temperatures arrive
behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon with lower 80s for most of
the region. Similarly, a cool night in the upper 50s and low 60s is
expected.

The remainder of the week into next weekend sees a quieter weather
pattern return to the southern Great Plains. A closed upper-low is
forecast to develop and remain nearly stationary over the lower
Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, an upper-high develops
and strengthens near the Four Corners. Our region resides between
these features, keeping a largely dry continental airmass filtering
into the region. This means no hope for any rainfall beyond
Wednesday. On the bright side, temperatures should remain pleasant
and near normal through the end of this week. Temperatures may climb
to near 90 this weekend, a tad above normal for this time of year as
the upper-high shifts slightly further east.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A clearing line is noted on satellite extending southwest-
northeast from roughly Valentine through Pecos to Snyder.
Southeast of this line, MVFR to IFR conditions have been stubborn
to lift, with VFR conditions noted to the northwest of this line.
We expect conditions to improve to VFR at KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ
during the early afternoon hours, but MVFR conditions are expected
to persist at KFST. There`s abundant signals across the short-
range model guidance that IFR to LIFR conditions will develop
along and north of this boundary before daybreak, impacting KMAF
in the 24/11Z to 24/15Z range. There is strong (> 80 percent)
confidence that KMAF will fall into the IFR range by 11Z, with
medium (~ 40 percent) confidence that LIFR conditions including
visibilities at or below 1/4SM within the same time frame at KMAF.
Conditions should remain VFR elsewhere, with conditions becoming
VFR at KMAF after 24/15Z. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  88  65  83 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 60  89  62  86 /   0  10   0  10
Dryden                   67  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            64  89  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           59  82  61  79 /   0  10   0  10
Hobbs                    59  86  60  84 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                    59  84  58  82 /  20  40  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     63  87  65  83 /  20  10  10  10
Odessa                   64  87  65  84 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     64  90  66  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...70