Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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187 FXUS64 KMAF 171103 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area for today. Return flow under the ridge that has been stationed over the Southern Plains has pushed low level moisture into SE NM and a weak surface trough/dryline feature is backed up over far west Texas. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day today, the surface feature will follow suit. Shower and storm chances increase this afternoon across SE NM southward across the Davis Mountains and adjacent foothills. Forecast soundings along the surface feature show long hodographs and an inverted-v shape that drive home that any strong to severe storms that do develop may contain strong to damaging wind gusts. Storms begin to develop during the mid to late afternoon and taper off during the evening after the loss of daytime heating. Areas east of the TX/NM border see storm chances diminish quickly as the thermodynamic environment is much less favorable away from the diffuse dryline to the west. Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of the mountains that stay slightly cooler. Overnight lows remain well above normal in the 60s to low 70s thanks to continued southeasterly flow. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Enjoy the heat while you can. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to center over Coahuila, providing perhaps the warmest day this forecast for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Under the ridge, thicknesses will be optimized, and highs should be a balmy ~ 10-12 F above normal. Meanwhile, an upper trough will make landfall on the west coast south of the Bay Area, nudging the ridge east and developing southwest flow aloft over the region. Thicknesses will begin a downward trend after Thursday, with highs following suit each day. Friday, the trough begins moving east, ejecting to the Four Corners by around 18Z Saturday. The trough is forecast to push a Pac front into the western CWA Saturday but, as early as the season is, there`s not much push behind it, and models hang it up mid-CWA Sunday. Convection will be possible along this feature, mainly over parts of Southeast New Mexico. Sunday night, return flow forms a warm front, pushing this feature back into the northwest fringes of the CWA Monday and Monday night. Even with the Pac front hanging up over the weekend, thicknesses will continue to crater, and cooler air will make its way into the region. Sunday and Monday, highs should average less than 5 F above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR continues through the period. Winds remain southeasterly. Gusts consistently return during the day today. TS/SHRA possible this afternoon and early evening for CNM/HOB/PEQ, but precluded from mention due to low confidence on timing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 93 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 93 68 96 69 / 20 20 0 0 Dryden 93 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 94 71 98 72 / 0 10 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 86 66 88 67 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 90 68 93 69 / 10 10 0 0 Marfa 89 65 92 64 / 10 10 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 92 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 91 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...93