826
FXUS64 KMAF 231842
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Another unseasonably hot day is underway across Southeast New
Mexico and West Texas, with highs on track to top out in the
upper 80s and lower 90s in the mountains, middle to upper 90s most
other locations, and lower 100s along portions of the Pecos and
Rio Grande Valleys. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until early
this evening for the mountains of Southwest Texas and Terrell and
Brewster Counties, with the hottest temperatures around 110F
expected along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. In addition to the
heat, very dry conditions also persist region-wide, and a Red Flag
Warning for critical fire weather conditions remains in effect
for western portions of the area. More on the Fire Weather risk
can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. While much of
the area will be sunny, hot, and dry today, there`s also potential
for a quick round of thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across
the Western Low Rolling Plains. The downsloping westerly surface
flow that`s allowing temperatures to soar is also acting to mix
the dryline eastward, with some CAMs indicating a low (10-20%)
chance for thunderstorms to develop over Mitchell and Scurry
counties this afternoon. While activity would quickly move
eastward, if storms are able to mature, large hail and damaging
winds would be the primary concerns.

After the hot day today, another mild night is ahead tonight, with
lows progged to drop into the 60s for most, with 50s across
northwestern and mountain areas, and lower 70s across portions of
the Stockton Plateau and Rio Grande Valley. Toward Friday morning,
a weak cold front will sag southward into the area, resulting in
a northwesterly to northerly wind shift, especially for locations
north of I-10. While this front will provide some reprieve from
the heat, it will only be a few degrees, with highs still expected
to reach into the 90s for most, and 100s along the Rio Grande.
Fortunately, the cooldown looks to be enough to avoid another
round of heat headlines, at least for Friday, though temperatures
will still be hot, and those with outdoor plans will need to
prepare accordingly to protect themselves from heat-related
illnesses. Lows Friday night follow the "cooling" trend, bottoming
out in the 50s and 60s across the area.

JP


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

 - The heat is on!
 - Some relief on Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms.

The medium to long-range forecast will be characterized by short
wave ridging aloft. Westerly winds at the surface through the mid
levels of the atmosphere will lead to compressional warming across
the southern High Plains, thus this Memorial Day weekend forecast
can indeed be considered a hot mess! Temperatures will hit or
exceed the century mark across the lowlands (and in the 110-115F
range at Rio Grande Village in Big Bend National Park) while
temperatures in the mountains will be in the upper 80s to the mid
90s. Therefore, Heat Advisories may be needed with future
forecasts for Sunday and Monday across the mountains and perhaps
portions of Brewster County should the trends of increased
thickness ridging continue per latest dProg/dt trends and the
majority of clusters across the ensemble suite.

We`ll catch some relief Monday as a weak cold front/augmented
outflow boundary sags south across the southern High Plains. An
increase in low-level moisture and upslope flow behind the
boundary Tuesday and Wednesday should be sufficient to gin up
isolated to scattered mainly diurnally-driven convection each day.
Precipitable water values increase to 2-3 cm Tuesday per the 00Z
cluster ensemble mean, and given the spotty areas of convection,
some lucky areas could see considerable precipitation while those
less fortunate could see none. Temperatures fall as well Tuesday
and Wednesday, back near climatological normals for this time of
year. Beyond Wednesday, a pattern shift may be in the offing,
which would lead to an increased chance for precipitation as we
head into next weekend. As always, stay tuned. -bc

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Gusty west-
southwesterly winds are expected at all terminals this afternoon,
with gusts to 20-30kt common. Gusts will diminish after sunset,
and a cold front progged to move into the area toward daybreak
Friday will result in a northwesterly to northerly wind shift at
CNM, HOB, INK, and MAF late in the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The combination of a very dry air mass and low RH readings (in the
single digits west of 102 degrees W) will cook fuels Friday;
however, 20-foot winds will be on the light side. Mixing over the
mountains may result in 20-foot winds exceeding 20 mph, so this
will bear watching. Overnight recovery tonight and Friday night
will range from poor from southeastern New Mexico south to the Big
Bend ranging to fair to good across the eastern Permian Basin.

Fire weather concerns ramp up Saturday and Sunday from
southeastern New Mexico down through the Guadalupes as 20-foot
winds increase and temperatures become warmer. ERC values are
forecast to be critically extreme across these areas, and in fact
the low-level thermal ridge aligns with winds such that RFTI
values in the 6 to 8 range are forecast for southeastern New
Mexico and into the northwestern Permian Basin Saturday afternoon.
At a minimum, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed as early as
tonight for these areas. In any case, we`ll let the current Red
Flag Warning drop off the table before issuing highlights for
Saturday when the fire weather concerns are greatest. Like tonight
and Friday night, overnight RH recovery will be poor across
southeastern New Mexico Saturday and Sunday nights, with fair to
very good recovery expected elsewhere.

With the passage of the weak cold front/augmented outflow boundary
Monday, increasing low-level moisture and a chance for wetting
rains Tuesday and Wednesday are a good thing. However, the
potential for dry lightning strikes over the Davis Mountains may
pose IA concerns where wetting rains have not fallen in quite some
time. We`ll have to watch the patterns closely as we get closer
to next weekend to see whether the trend of temperatures closer to
normal and a chance for wetting rains continue. -bc

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               61  95  59 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 63  94  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   70 103  67 106 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  98  63 102 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           61  85  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  91  54  94 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  90  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  95  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   64  95  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     60  98  59 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower
     Brewster County-Terrell.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...84