074
FXUS64 KMAF 221852
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
152 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Early this afternoon, showers and isolated thunderstorms are
ongoing across the northern Permian Basin northward across the
South Plains in an isentropic upglide regime in the wake of this
morning`s cold front. The front has become somewhat diffuse, but
based on latest surface observations, appears to be roughly along
the I-20 corridor in the Permian Basin, with a weak surface low
currently located in the vicinity of the southern Permian Basin
and Stockton Plateau. Both of these features will facilitate
thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening, and
while the severe threat is notably lower today than yesterday
given cooler temperatures and lingering cloud cover, breaks in the
clouds could allow MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg to be
realized. Shear is notably lower than yesterday as well (up to
around 30kt in the vicinity of the front), thus a more
multicellular mode is anticipated with congealing outflows
yielding a damaging wind threat, though a few stronger storms
could produce marginally severe hail as convection moves east-
southeastward through this evening.

Tonight, the front will resume its southward momentum in earnest,
though as the broad trough over the region maintains its positive
tilt, midlevel flow will facilitate additional rainfall,
especially across the eastern/southeastern two-thirds of the
forecast area. The severe threat will wane this evening, though
there will remain a medium potential (30-60%) for at least
intermittent showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall would be the
primary concerns, especially across far eastern areas and across
the Stockton Plateau where cell training may occur. Lows will
trend cooler tonight, ranging from the 50s north and across the
higher terrain to lower to middle 60s elsewhere, with lower 70s
confined along the Rio Grande.

Monday will see continued rain chances, especially south of I-20,
though potential trends lower (10-30%) as the trough and
associated speed max translate east-northeastward. While today is
the first day of astronomical fall, Monday will certainly feel
like it, with highs in the 70s for most of the area, plenty of
cloud cover, and intermittent showers possible. The unsettled
pattern lingers Monday night, with continued showers and
thunderstorms possible as lows drop into the 50s and 60s, though
fortunately, no severe weather is expected.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Deterministic and ensemble models are showing less of a closed
upper low east of the Four Corners and more of a fast moving
shortwave embedded in larger scale troughing over the central
CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday. Deterministic ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and
ICON all show the short wave closing off, but farther east over
the ArkLaTex rather than E NM. As a result of this more open, fast
moving short wave scenario looking more likely, have decreased
PoPs Tuesday and Wednesday. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the short
wave aloft is forecast to drag a surface cold front down from the
north across the CWA. Because of the sharp gradient of the front,
we are expecting the broad area of 30 to 40 PoPs to narrow and
sharpen in future model runs, with showers and storms delivering
most of the rain that falls. NBM has backed off on rain totals,
mainly showing 1 inch or higher amounts over the eastern Permian
Basin into Stockton Plateau, with highest amounts farther to the
northeast of the CWA. The LREF-NH Grand Ensemble and European
ENS, NCEP GEFS, and Canadian GEPS ensemble clusters are all
depicting this as well.

High temperatures Tuesday will be warmer than Monday and mostly
in the 80s ahead of the cold front, but by Wednesday will be more
similar to Monday and below average in the 80s, 70s over higher
elevations. Thicknesses and heights rise as ridging builds in from
the western CONUS. However, the ridge being located to the west
will prevent the greatest amount of southerly return flow, keeping
temperatures near normal and mostly in the 80s, 70s over higher
elevations, and 90s and above near the Rio Grande into the eastern
Stockton Plateau and along the Pecos River Thursday into next
Sunday. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Plains will
keep conditions dry. Highs and lows have trended upward by a few
degrees in most recent NBM runs, again demonstrating that models
are depicting that troughing may not be as large in magnitude and
persistent this week as was indicated in earlier runs. As a result
of the lower high temperatures compared to last week, lows will
fall into the 50s and 60s for most of the area each night Tuesday
night through next Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR ceilings persist at issuance for all but MAF and PEQ, though
all terminals are expected to see at least a few hours of VFR
conditions this afternoon into early this evening. However, low
ceilings return quickly between 00Z-06Z, potentially holding off
for FST and CNM until 08Z-10Z, with a medium to high potential
(50-75%) of IFR ceilings at MAF and FST by daybreak. Low ceilings
will persist thereafter through the end of the period, along with
periods of MVFR visibility in drizzle/fog, especially for eastern
terminals. SHRA has developed east of HOB and north of MAF, with
increasing coverage of SHRA/TSRA late this afternoon onward.
However, low confidence in timing/location precludes mention at
this time, thus will monitor and amend as needed. Winds will shift
to the north and northeast at all terminals, with gusts to around
20-25kt this afternoon and early evening, becoming light tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  74  61  85 /  70  30  30  30
Carlsbad                 55  80  59  87 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                   67  81  66  87 /  50  30  10  20
Fort Stockton            60  74  62  87 /  50  30  20  20
Guadalupe Pass           52  74  59  81 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                    54  76  58  85 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                    57  75  55  83 /  20  30  40  40
Midland Intl Airport     58  73  60  85 /  60  30  30  20
Odessa                   59  74  62  85 /  50  30  30  20
Wink                     61  78  62  88 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84