Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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742 FXUS64 KMAF 152314 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 614 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 We continue to monitor satellite this afternoon as Cu develops across portions of Lea County south into the Trans Pecos. Hi-res models indicate this is an area of potential convective development over the next few hours. High levels of moisture at the surface and intense afternoon heating has allowed for a conditionally unstable environment across the eastern half of the area. A couple of storms could go severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. These storms will slide east into the Permian Basin, but weak flow aloft will keep them from making it too far. A breezy, mild night is expected with rain chances diminishing before midnight. Sunday looks like another hot one with highs back near 100 or above for most locations. Will issue a Heat Advisory for the western half of the area which will likely be extended into Monday. There will be another shot at some isolated storms, though mostly confined to the higher terrain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Come Monday, the upper pattern remains largely stagnant across our region with a large upper trough across the western US, a ridge across the eastern US, and a separate segment of ridging across northern Mexico and Baja. The weakness between these two areas of ridging allows an inverted trough to push into Texas mid-week steered by the eastern US ridge. While Monday/Tuesday features more relatively quiet and hot days with afternoon storms limited to the Davis Mountains, this inverted trough could bring an appreciable pattern change for the second half of the week. At the very least, this feature will bring in plenty of rich low-mid level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico which should also dampen high temperatures some as well. As far as how much precipitation could result from this, the strength/location of the trough will be pivotal into how expansive rainfall could be and there remains uncertainty both model to model but also run to run. The range of possibilities could still be anywhere from some additional showers/t`storms in the Davis` to more widespread rain showers stretching into the Permian Basin. Still, the main takeaways from today`s trends for the late-week rain is that Thursday looks to bring the best chance for rain, with locations along/south of I-10 likely seeing the highest rainfall totals. With added clouds/rain chances, high temperatures will be limited into the 80s for most on Thursday/Friday, returning back into the 90s for the weekend. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR will prevail through the period. A few storms are possible this evening, but uncertainty still exists as to where these storms will move. Gusty (~25 kts) southeast winds are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 100 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 106 72 106 / 10 0 0 0 Dryden 75 101 74 100 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Stockton 74 105 74 104 / 10 20 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 98 69 97 / 0 0 10 0 Hobbs 69 101 69 102 / 20 0 10 0 Marfa 63 100 62 99 / 10 20 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 75 99 74 99 / 10 0 0 0 Odessa 75 99 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Wink 75 106 77 106 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet- Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...29