Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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718 FXUS64 KMAF 250818 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 318 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft transitioning to southwest as an upper trough approaches through the southwest CONUS. This feature will move through West texas and Southeast New Mexico later today, developing a marginal mountain wave signature over the Guadalupes. This will result in high winds through the mountains, as well as eastern Culberson county, and advisory winds on the adjacent plains. Soils are dry enough out there for a little BLDU this afternoon. These downslope winds will add a warming component to temperatures, resulting in highs ~ 4-6F above yesterday`s. Relative humidity will be low single digit like yesterday, but with the added increased 20- ft winds, a Red Flag Warning is in effect. See fire weather discussion below for more details. With these increased temperatures, hazardous heat returned, and heat advisories are in effect south. Finally, the dryline is forecast to mix east to the Western Low Rolling Plain by late afternoon, where isolated thunderstorms could initiate. CAMs depict deep-layer shear 40-50 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km or better, so a severe threat will exist into the evening hours. Tonight, with mostly clear, decreasing winds, and a very dry airmass in place, efficient radiational cooling will allow temperatures to cool to at or just above normal. Sunday, winds veer a little northwest on the backside of the trough, and thicknesses decrease, shaving 2-3F off Saturday`s temperatures, yielding highs 6-8F above normal. Despite this, heat advisories still look warranted along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Weak upper ridging that moves in on Sunday is still going to be overhead on Monday with a stout low level thermal ridge of 30-32C at 850mb, shaping up for another hot day. However, a back-door front is progged to nose into the Permian Basin Monday morning. Some uncertainty remains in how far the front makes it Monday with the NAM being more aggressive than the global models but ensemble mean winds and the NAM both suggest it could encroach into the central Permian Basin. The realized effect of this front is only really a few degrees cooler than those south of the front but more notable northeasterly winds and better moisture will also occur north of the front. Either way, a secondary surge of this front paired with nocturnal moisture return brings 55-60+ degree dewpoints as far west as the TX/NM state line...setting the stage for some more active weather come Tuesday. While upper ridging lingers through Tuesday afternoon, the ridge axis will be in central Texas with southwesterly flow established, albeit generally weak (only 30-35kts at 500mb). This flow helps limit how far east the dryline mixes Tuesday afternoon, and this will dictate where any storms may occur. With marginal subsidence from the ridging inducing weak capping and limited boundaries to get storms going, achieving CI will likely be limiting factor on Tuesday. The global models reflect this idea with limited storm coverage and the NBM may be overdoing PoPs a touch here, but we`ll have to see how the evolution of this forecast goes as we get within range of the regional and convective-allowing models. Should any storms get going though, steep mid level lapse rates support high CAPE profiles but shear will be somewhat limited due to the weak flow aloft. Wednesday looks to be a repeat of Tuesday with return flow aiding in atmospheric recovery behind any convection from the previous night. The only difference here is that lingering outflow boundaries could contribute to more storm development and increased environmental shear. Temperatures beyond Monday will still be on the hot side but *some* relief presents itself on Tuesday and Wednesday (on the order of a few degrees cooler...) across the Permian Basin with the added clouds/precipitation chances. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a few high clouds. Southwest flow will increase and become gusty by late Saturday morning. Winds will decouple around sundown and veer a little to the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are on tap for this afternoon with Red Flag Warnings remaining in effect for southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas. Exceptionally dry air remains in place this morning with only marginally fair recovery occurring in the eastern zones. Humidity quickly falls down to 4-5 percent along and west of the TX-NM state line this afternoon in tandem with elevated winds from an incoming upper trough. Westerly winds will be sustained at 25-35 mph as high as 40+ mph in the warning area (with stronger gusts in the mountains). As such, RFTIs are upwards of 7-8 this afternoon illustrating the severity of the anticipated atmospheric conditions to support potentially dangerous fire activity. Fuels remain extremely dry out west (ERCs above the 97th percentile) where very little rain has been observed in the last several weeks to months. Conditions tame this evening as winds relax some after sunset but still remain somewhat elevated in the mountains through the overnight hours. The tail-end of the upper jet associated with Saturday`s increased winds lingers overhead into Sunday afternoon as well, especially across the western high terrain. Similarly poor overnight recovery and very low humidities Sunday afternoon will coincide with these elevated winds. While RFTIs are high once again, have precluded a Fire Weather Watch for these areas given a relatively short duration of the critical conditions and to keep emphasis on today`s fire threat. Future updates can decide on a higher level product if needed but Sunday looks to be at least an RFD day. Winds relax beyond Sunday and fire weather concerns decrease as a result. It will still remain quite dry throughout the week, especially out west, but overnight recovery gets better with the dryline retreating west of the TX-NM state line each night. -Munyan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 100 65 98 61 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 96 63 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 105 72 104 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 103 68 98 66 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 87 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 95 61 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 95 57 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 99 66 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 99 68 96 64 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 102 64 99 61 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Andrews-Chinati Mountains- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 11 PM CDT /10 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM CDT this evening for Eastern Culberson County-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin- Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Terrell. NM...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains. High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44