269
FXUS64 KMAF 291851
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
151 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A few clouds and stable conditions behind outflow from last
nights storms to our north have kept temperatures down across the
Permian Basin this afternoon. While most locations struggle to get
to 90 degrees there, temperatures have warmed into the low to mid
90s south of the Pecos River early this afternoon. Instability is
increasing in these hotter locations and isolated storms may
develop over the next few hours, especially off the Stockton
Plateau. There is a low chance to see a left mover head NE into
the Permian Basin, but coverage of storms will be much lower than
yesterday. Large hail and damaging winds are again the main
threats today.

After another mild overnight southeast winds increase bringing
deep Gulf moisture across the region Thursday. A dryline will
sharpen across the western Permian Basin by afternoon as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s to near 100 for most
locations. A shortwave crossing the TX PH will help generate
enough lift to get storms to develop along the dryline by mid
afternoon. Similar to yesterday, we will have to monitor for any
outflow boundaries that could move into the region from storms
that develop tonight well to our north. This could serve as an
additional focus for storm development. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in how storms will evolve tomorrow, but severe weather
is probable given a similar setup to Tuesday. Given the hot
temperatures mentioned above, will likely need yet another Heat
Advisory across the Davis Mountains south to the Big Bend for
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A surface cold front moves south through the area Friday with
highs below to near normal for late May in its wake northeast of
the Pecos River, ranging from the 80s over northern Lea County,
northern Permian Basin, and higher elevations of West Texas, and
90s and above elsewhere. Triple digits readings are forecast over
the Reeves County Plains and Stockton Plateau as well as near the
Rio Grande. Lows likewise will be a few degrees above normal in
the low 60s northern areas, mid to upper 60s for most, upper 50s
in highest elevations, and 70s near the Rio Grande into the
southeastern Permian Basin. A slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms, a few severe, are possible along/behind the front,
with the main risks being damaging winds, large hail, and flash
flooding. Rain chances may be reinforced by incoming boundaries
from the northeast from a remnant MCV providing additional
mesoscale lift for development and organization of storms. Behind
the cold front and in association with this MCV, reinforcing
cooler air into the area Friday night and Saturday will keep highs
and lows Saturday similar to on Friday. Saturday, with the
dryline setting up over far West Texas and an upper short wave
trough approaching from the west, low level mass response in the
form of easterly upslope surface flow is forecast. This easterly
upslope flow advects in moisture and leads to rain chances
everywhere across the area, including westernmost regions that
have not seen much rain in the last few months. Strong to severe
storms are possible again Saturday, and the strongest storms could
produce damaging winds and large hail in addition to heavy rain.

By Sunday, a summertime-like pattern will begin to develop as an
upper ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific into much of the
U.S. Intermountain West and Rockies. Near the surface, flow
everywhere veers from easterly to southerly, also helping to
transport warmer air into the area. Highs and lows above average
in the 90s and above everywhere aside from the highest elevations
and the Western Low Rolling Plains are expected Sunday. This
warming pattern only continues into Monday into Wednesday, as
persistent southerly surface flow and upper ridging yield
widespread highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal, in the triple
digits for most of the area, aside from higher elevations and
farther west and east of the Pecos River where highs only reach
the 90s. Widespread lows 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper
60s into the 70s Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights are also
in store. The coolest conditions of the long term will be Friday
and Saturday, and the warmest conditions in the long term will be
Monday into Wednesday next week. Not all areas will see rain
Friday and Saturday, however the most widespread rain is forecast
Saturday. Since the dryline has not yet retreated as far west as
El Paso, we may still have a few more opportunities for rain
before the Death Ridge locks in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR will prevail through the period as low CIGs burn off over the
next hour. Winds will remain out of the east and southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are likely each day west of the
dryline for westernmost parts of the area in the Sacramento
Foothills, Guadalupes, adjacent plains, higher terrain west of the
Pecos, and Presidio Valley into the Big Bend, where ERCs running
high at or above the 95th percentile, poor overnight recovery, min
RH below critical 15%, and gusty 20ft winds contribute to fire
weather concerns. On Saturday, storms occurring over these regions
of high ERCs could pose a risk for fire starts, however lower
fuel density will constrain this risk.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  94  66  88 /  20  20  20  30
Carlsbad                 65 100  64  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                   73  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton            70 100  67  99 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           63  90  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    64  97  62  90 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                    56  95  55  95 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     69  97  67  93 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                   70  97  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                     70 102  67  99 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
     County-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
     Foothills-Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29