Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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485 FXUS64 KMAF 231129 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current satellite and observations show low clouds have moved into the area. These clouds will remain through this morning before scattering out this afternoon. Weak cold air advection will offset the increased insolation and highs this afternoon should hold below normal with readings in the 70s to low 80s providing a beautiful day. The jet stream is centered over the CWA and will provide enough instability that isolated to widely scattered showers are expected between the I-10/I-20 corridors later today. Surface high pressure behind the front quickly sags southeast providing a return of warmer southeasterly winds overnight. In addition, increasing subsidence Tuesday behind a departing upper trough axis will cause temperatures to rebound back into the 80s. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 213 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A secondary shortwave trough will dig into the Great Plains amid the larger longwave troughing across the Great Lakes to southern Great Plains. This secondary shortwave trough pushes a reinforcing cold front south through our region early on Wednesday. Continued rain chances may accompany this front across eastern portions of the area, but drier and more stable air quickly filters in behind it, ending rainfall potential. Cooler, below normal temperatures arrive behind the cold front Wednesday afternoon with lower 80s for most of the region. Similarly, a cool night in the upper 50s and low 60s is expected. The remainder of the week into next weekend sees a quieter weather pattern return to the southern Great Plains. A closed upper-low is forecast to develop and remain nearly stationary over the lower Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, an upper-high develops and strengthens near the Four Corners. Our region resides between these features, keeping a largely dry continental airmass filtering into the region. This means no hope for any rainfall beyond Wednesday. On the bright side, temperatures should remain pleasant and near normal through the end of this week. Temperatures may climb to near 90 this weekend, a tad above normal for this time of year as the upper-high shifts slightly further east. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 MVFR conditions are generally expected through around 18Z. Brief IFR conditions may develop at some locations but it will be intermittent and so the TAFs reflect the prevailing CIG heights. VFR conditions are then expected which should last through the end of the TAF period. Light northeast winds become southeasterly as the effects of a cold front end. Hennig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 62 86 64 / 20 20 20 20 Carlsbad 81 61 89 62 / 10 10 10 10 Dryden 82 68 88 68 / 30 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 78 63 89 63 / 30 20 20 10 Guadalupe Pass 75 60 82 61 / 20 10 10 10 Hobbs 78 59 87 60 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 76 59 83 58 / 30 20 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 77 63 87 64 / 20 20 20 20 Odessa 77 63 87 65 / 30 20 20 20 Wink 80 65 90 65 / 20 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...10