Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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371 FXUS64 KMAF 142006 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Current visible satellite shows an extensive cumulus cloud deck extending from the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. This is good to see as it is what had been until recently, climatologically normal. A typical summer pattern has an upper level high to our west with surface high pressure over East Texas and the northern Gulf Coast advecting moist, Gulf of Mexico air all the way to far West Texas and even beyond. The past few years have seen either the upper high centered directly over us, or weak westerly flow bringing in hot, dry air causing oppressive heat and no rainfall. We don`t have much rain in the short term forecast, but the moist air is being lifted by daytime heating and mountain orographics creating isolated showers in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains. An upper level low moving across the Central Rockies will help increase and spread some of the showers from the Guadalupes and Sangre de Cristos east into Eddy and Lea counties. More moisture means it is harder to cool down at night so expect lows to be slightly above normal. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be in the 70s everywhere except for some 60s in the mountains and northern Lea County. Temperatures tomorrow will be near normal with highs in the 90s in the Permian Basin and mountains with 100s in the Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande. Hennig && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 After a weak trough departs the region on Saturday, the upper level pattern devolves into rather stagnant flow with only a scraping influence from upper level ridging nosing out of northern Mexico. The result will be marginally above average temperatures but not overly hot with KMAF still looking to fend off triple digit high temperatures in the long term. The hottest temperatures will be found in the river valleys with heat headlines possible each afternoon through Tuesday. With the summertime pattern maintaining modest low level moisture, diurnally driven storms are possible across the Davis Mountains each afternoon through Wednesday. A very welcome pattern change featuring less hot weather and much higher moisture remains possible as we enter the middle part of the week. A strong and dominant ridge setup across the eastern CONUS helps guide an inverted trough onshore in the western Gulf and into Texas for Wednesday into Thursday. While there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the timing of this trough and how far north it can extend, what is more certain is high temperatures only in the upper 80s for most on Thursday/Friday. The increased moisture associated with the trough will certainly aid in an increase in coverage for diurnal storms, but the chance for more widespread rainfall will greatly depend on the timing/strength of the inverted trough. For what it is worth, global models and ensembles are indicating somewhat good agreement for PWAT values of 1.5" to even 1.75" which would be well over the 90th percentile for mid-June. Needless to say, we will surely have some good moisture to work with, but the question remains if we will be gifted any synoptic assistance to do anything with it. Stay tuned for details in the coming days... -Munyan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions will remain this TAF period. Isolated TS will form in the Guadalupe Mountains and push east into Eddy County potentially affecting CNM. Uncertainty is too high to include in the TAF but TS will probably be close enough that if not on station then it will impact local flying operations. Modest and gusty southeast winds will continue. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 74 98 74 100 / 0 0 10 0 Carlsbad 74 102 70 106 / 20 10 10 0 Dryden 77 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 75 102 74 104 / 0 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 97 69 97 / 30 0 10 0 Hobbs 70 98 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Marfa 64 97 62 99 / 10 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 97 74 99 / 0 0 10 0 Odessa 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 10 0 Wink 77 103 75 105 / 0 10 10 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau. NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...10