473
ACUS11 KWNS 261653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261652
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-261815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0974
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...northern and middle Tennessee into central Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 315...

Valid 261652Z - 261815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315, both
with a bow echo across eastern KY into northern TN, and with another
round of storms approaching from the west. Damaging gusts are
possible with both lines of storms, and QLCS tornadoes cannot be
ruled out with storms interacting with a pristine airmass.

DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are currently
progressing across the TN Valley area. The first is a longer-lived
QLCS with a history of damaging gusts (some severe) that is
currently moving across eastern KY and far northern TN. The second
is an intensifying line of storms trailing the previous QLCS in an
overturned airmass. The first QLCS should continue to progress
eastward with a damaging gust threat for at least a couple more
hours. With the line oriented roughly perpendicular to the
deep-layer shear vectors, a QLCS tornado remains possible.

The second line of storms to the west is traversing a stable airmass
and is currently ingesting elevated but buoyant air parcels given
appreciable 850 mb WAA. However, southern portions of this line may
cross the cold pool boundary of the previous QLCS into
surface-based, buoyant air, characterized by surface temperatures
and dewpoints into the low 80s F/70sF (respectively). In this
environment, MLCAPE increases to 2000 J/kg amid 60+ kts of effective
bulk shear. As such, damaging gusts and perhaps a brief QLCS tornado
could accompany portion of this line that can ingest surface-based
parcels.

..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36928809 37358588 37988463 38058399 37338369 36508366
            35778399 35538494 35438636 35468737 35588795 36078857
            36928809