348
ACUS11 KWNS 252141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252141
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Kansas into Nebraska and far northeast
Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 252141Z - 252345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across Nebraska and far northeast Colorado
will gradually intensify through early evening with an increase in
storm coverage expected across northwest Kansas in the coming hours.
One or more watches will likely be needed for these regions to
address these concerns given a destabilizing convective environment.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, initially high-based convection
developing across the central High Plains has intensified to severe
limits with a 1.0 inch hailstone recently reported out of northeast
CO. Despite marginal moisture return thus far (dewpoints in the
upper 40s to low 50s), cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE
values upwards of 1000 J/kg downstream across much of NE. Continued
northward moisture advection through early evening will steadily
improve buoyancy, which should result in a gradual intensification
of ongoing convection as it moves east. Initially discrete cells
should see some degree of upscale growth given dry low-level
conditions that will promote cold pool expansion over the next
couple of hours. Strong mid-level flow sampled by regional VWPs
should promote storm organization into one or more linear segments
with an increasing severe wind threat.

To the south across northwest KS and far eastern CO, GOES visible
imagery shows steady vertical development within a broad cumulus
field in the vicinity of the deepening surface low. While some MLCIN
remains in place, continued low-level moistening/heating combined
with steady mesoscale ascent near the low should promote
thunderstorm development in the next couple of hours. 50-knot
deep-layer shear should promote initially discrete cells with an
attendant risk for large hail (possibly up to 2.0 inches in
diameter). Trends will be monitored for both regions, and one or
more watches will likely be needed in the coming 1-2 hours.

..Moore/Smith.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38780127 39000160 40010235 40300288 40440328 40560364
            40820393 41250398 41950372 42630297 42810241 42960151
            42970032 42839922 42419851 41959816 41329796 40219803
            39649848 39259895 38730044 38670098 38780127