322
ACUS11 KWNS 192058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192058
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-192230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of the middle to upper Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 192058Z - 192230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms may be capable of occasional damaging
gusts this afternoon/evening. Limited potential for storm
organization should keep the risk isolated.

DISCUSSION...Across parts of the upper MS Valley, afternoon radar
imagery shows scattered thunderstorms have developed near a
slow-moving cold front stretching from southern WI to northern MO.
Over the past hour, a few of these storms have intensified with a
noted increase in lightning. Strong diurnal heating and dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s F ahead of the front have resulted in 1000
J/kg of MLCAPE. While buoyancy will likely support additional storm
development and occasional vigorous updrafts, vertical bulk shear is
rather weak with area VADs sampling generally less than 20 kt. This,
along with much of the stronger convection being confined near and
behind the front suggests that storm organization will likely be
limited. Steep low-level lapse rates in the lowest 2km may support
occasional stronger downdrafts, especially with any more persistent
storm clusters. The risk for isolated damaging gusts will likely
continue into this evening as storm coverage slowly increases.
However, the limited potential for storm organization suggests a
weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons.. 06/19/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42048810 41888844 40219125 39249301 39489361 39829379
            39929367 40539262 40929178 41649096 42968974 43768886
            44038836 43968808 43768786 43348774 42778769 42048810