982
ACUS11 KWNS 161225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161224
NCZ000-161430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Areas affected...Far Southern NC Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161224Z - 161430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A low-probability tornado risk could develop across far
southern coastal North Carolina as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8
approaches the region.

DISCUSSION...The area of low pressure (dubbed Potential Tropical
Cyclone 8 by NHC) off the southern NC/northern SC continues to
slowly move northwestward towards the coast. Abundant precipitation
to the northwest of this low has been ongoing across the
southern/central NC coast for much of the night, limiting
destabilization. Even so, a more buoyant airmass likely exists just
offshore, as evidenced by the recent lightning within the deep
convection about 30 miles south-southeast of ILM. Gradual
northwestward progression of the low could bring this more buoyant
air onshore over the immediate southern NC Coast. Strong low-level
wind fields exist around this low, as sampled by the LTX VAD, and a
few areas of transient low-level rotation have been noted from the
LTX radar as well.

General expectation is for most of the deeper convection to remain
offshore for the next few hours, with the exception of the
previously mentioned immediate coast of southern NC. Here, there is
a chance of more persistent deep convection which could support a
low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 09/16/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...

LAT...LON   33777841 33987849 34507804 34307751 33767795 33777841