Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 190000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190000
WIZ000-MNZ000-190200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1329
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin
Concerning...Tornado Watch 433...
Valid 190000Z - 190200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind continues within WW433.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across
Minnesota. Storm mode has largely been linear along an
eastward-moving cold front. A few sub-severe clusters continue out
ahead of the main line. Ahead of this line, an unstable air mass
extends across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s
to 70s F. Within this region, surface objective analysis shows
MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Much of the deep-layer shear remains
along and on the cool side of the approaching cold front. Downstream
severe threat will be dependent on upscale growth and strength of
any developing cold pool within the main line. A watch may be needed
east of WW433 if trends show potential for storms to develop a deep
cold pool, and increased potential for a damaging-wind threat.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43719534 44529506 45559460 46169441 46929368 47319259
47259205 47199174 46679114 46229113 45669122 45139141
44859153 44279195 44019215 43779259 43529313 43509467
43539488 43719534