136
ACUS11 KWNS 171728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171728
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-171930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern Indiana...northern and central
Ohio...into far western New York/Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171728Z - 171930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage may gradually increase through the
afternoon with one or more convective clusters possible. Storm
organization should remain fairly limited, but damaging gusts and
isolated hail will be possible with the stronger cores. A WW is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...As of 1720 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed isolated thunderstorms had evolved out of a destabilizing air
mass over parts of the mid and upper OH Valley. Located near the
periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone and near a weak remnant
MCV, forcing for ascent is rather nebulous and is likely primarily
being driven by ongoing strong diurnal heating. As surface
temperatures approach and breach convective temperatures, storm
coverage should increase supported by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE from
SPC mesoanalysis. Vertical shear is rather weak, generally less than
20 kt, which should favor a multicellular storm mode. Some
clustering of stronger cells is also expected given relatively high
LCL heights (> 1500m) and steep low-level lapse rates supporting
efficient downdrafts. This will likely favor damaging gusts with the
stronger storms. Isolated hail may also be possible with the deeper
and more persistent updrafts given the large magnitude of buoyancy.
While a few stronger clusters of storms may evolve, the limited
vertical shear and forcing for ascent suggest storm organization
will be limited. Given the limited storm organization, a WW is not
expected.

..Lyons/Halbert/Gleason.. 06/17/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40788579 40898570 41098550 41398485 41558393 41518320
            41578177 42148021 42257985 42567897 42117900 41597923
            40967986 40438096 39658394 40008561 40788579