149
ACUS11 KWNS 041841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041840
KSZ000-OKZ000-042115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 041840Z - 042115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to evolve into an intensifying
sustained supercell, then upscale growing and organizing
thunderstorm cluster through 3-5 PM CDT.  A severe weather watch may
be required within the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...South of the primary trough within the stronger
westerlies overspreading the northern Great Plains, a perturbation
within weaker westerlies to the lee of the southern Rockies is in
the process of overspreading the western Kansas through Texas
Panhandle vicinity.  Just ahead of this feature, a persistent
cluster of developing thunderstorms (now slowly progressing east of
the Russell KS vicinity) has been focused near the northern
periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading much of the southern Great Plains, likely aided by
warm advection near the 700 mb level.  Beneath this regime,
insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high
moisture content is becoming moderate to strongly unstable, with
CAPE increasing in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg.

It appears that the storms near Russell are undergoing a period of
significant intensification with increasing inflow of this air now
underway.  With the continued eastward progression of the upstream
impulse, further suppression of inhibition associated with elevated
mixed-layer may allow for a substantive further increase and upscale
growth of convection through the 20-22Z time frame.

Although convection is embedded within weak westerly deep-layer mean
flow on the order of 10-20 kt, modest shear due to veering wind
fields with height in lower to mid-levels may be sufficient to
support a sustained intensifying supercell structure with increasing
risk for large hail and some potential for a brief tornado.
Eventually upscale growth may be accompanied by the evolution of a
notable mesoscale convective vortex, strengthening mid-level rear
inflow and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts with
downward mixing to the surface.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   38110080 38739948 39799774 39629620 37709607 36799804
            37150028 38110080