086
ACUS11 KWNS 061853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061853
OKZ000-TXZ000-062000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into
northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061853Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm
development will become increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT.
This may include one or two developing supercell structures, with
large hail and potentially damaging surface gusts the primary
potential severe hazards. It is not certain when or if a watch will
be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Beneath fairly prominent mid/upper ridging (which
encompasses much of the Great Basin and Southwest into southern
Great Plains), and lingering elevated mixed-layer air to the east of
the southern Rockies, a remnant surface front is becoming the focus
for strengthening differential surface heating across the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma.  Enhanced
low-level convergence along this zone is maintaining sufficient
moisture within a deepening mixed boundary layer to support CAPE
increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Perhaps aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection,
deepening high-based convective development is ongoing.   With
additional insolation and the approach of convective temperatures,
isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development
appears increasingly probable through 21-23Z.

West-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow is weak (around 10-15 kt),
but veering of winds with height might be contributing to shear
marginally sufficient to support short-lived supercell structures
with potential to produce severe hail and wind.  This activity will
be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to propagate southward
and southwestward.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36770102 36969965 36729776 35499903 35500061 35450108
            35850173 36390162 36770102