Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 191943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191942
NMZ000-192145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1334
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Areas affected...east-central NM
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191942Z - 192145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few drifting cells may congeal into a slow-moving
cluster, centered on east-central New Mexico, through early evening.
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible.
DISCUSSION...Convective development has increased this hour near a
residual outflow boundary and along on the higher terrain from the
Sacramento Mountains northward. Adequate veering of the low-level
wind profile with height from low-level east-southeasterlies turning
to mid-level southwesterlies (as sampled by the FDX VWP) may support
transient supercell structures. This would seemingly be most favored
near the large-scale outflow boundary, but convection in this
corridor has already shown a tendency to cluster quickly. While a
more longer-lasting supercell could develop, the predominant
expectation is for transient organization and slow-moving clustering
into early evening. Isolated large hail from 1-1.75 inches in
diameter and isolated severe gusts from 55-70 mph appear possible.
..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 34730623 35290521 35560439 35460364 34970320 33710330
33130455 32750525 32960567 33950610 34640624 34730623