757
ACUS11 KWNS 152359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152358
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 152358Z - 160130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a
tornado or two will spread eastward this evening. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is gradually increasing in size across
northeast KS into southeast NE, as the northern portion of a smaller
cluster that developed earlier over central KS begins to merge with
ongoing storms across southeast NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and
marginally sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support
organized convection through the evening, and the ongoing storm
cluster is expected to move into parts of northwest MO and
southwest/central IA with time.

With a linear mode already established, damaging winds may be the
most likely hazard as storms progress east-northeastward this
evening. However, rather strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
regional VWPs) will also support potential for a tornado or two.
Downstream watch issuance is likely between 7-8 PM CDT if trends
continue to support a severe threat this evening into northwest MO
and southwest/central IA.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   40059512 41299505 41989494 42189481 42199412 42099318
            41239308 39819337 39519448 39559484 40059512