065
ACUS11 KWNS 262319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262318
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-270045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Far Southern
IL...Western/Central KY...Far Southwest IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...

Valid 262318Z - 270045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.

SUMMARY...Open warm sector initiation appears to be underway from
far southeast Missouri across far southern Illinois into
western/central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Supercells capable of
all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible.
Southern IN and western/central KY will likely need an additional
Tornado Watch soon.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite  has shown increasingly deep
cumulus within the warm sector well ahead of the main cold front
from far southwest MO across southern IL into southwest KY and far
southwest IN. Some radar returns have been recently noted with this
activity as well, giving increasing confidence that at least
isolated convective initiation may be realized shortly.

A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends across much of this
region, resulting in notable low-level veering within the VAD
profiles at PAH and HPX. Ample low-level moisture and strong
buoyancy exists across the region as well. Mesoanalysis estimates
STP is currently from 3 to 5, with this high values expected to
persist and expand northeastward with time. The result is an
environment that is favorable for supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including strong tornadoes. Very large hail up to 2.5" in
diameter is possible as well. Some of this area is within the
Tornado Watch 230, but those areas to its east including far
southern IN and western KY will likely need an additional Tornado
Watch soon.

..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38128933 38648795 38618586 36998615 36568934 37308980
            38128933