Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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916
ACUS11 KWNS 270226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270226
ARZ000-MSZ000-270400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1002
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Areas affected...Central/East-Central into Northeast AR
Concerning...Tornado Watch 320...
Valid 270226Z - 270400Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues.
SUMMARY...New development may occur across central/east-central into
northeast AR. The environment is supportive of supercells and
convective trends are be monitored closely. An expansion of ongoing
Tornado Watches or a new Tornado Watch may be needed if trends
merit.
DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows greater vertical
development within the cumulus over central AR, with radar returns
increasing in this area as well. This appears to be related to a
modest area of low-level confluence ahead of the primary wind shift
which remains farther northwest. The 00Z LZK sounding sampled a very
unstable airmass, with MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Strong vertical shear
extends across the region as well, with the 00Z LZK sounding
sampling 55 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear and the recent LZK VAD sampling
over 30 kt of 0-1 km bulk shear. These environmental conditions are
more than sufficient for robust updrafts and supercells if dry-air
entrainment can be overcome. Convective trends will be monitored
closely and an expansion of ongoing Tornado Watches or a new Tornado
Watch may be needed if trends merit.
..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 35569188 36049089 35929002 35559011 34469069 34089188
34729292 35569188