Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 252023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252023
ALZ000-MSZ000-252200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0955
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024
Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into central
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252023Z - 252200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may continue to increase in both
coverage and intensity along residual outflow. Some of the stronger
storms may produce damaging gusts and perhaps some large hail.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Several strong thunderstorms, including multicells and
potential transient supercells, have been gradually intensifying
along a diffuse outflow boundary left behind by earlier storms.
These storms are ingesting a very buoyant airmass, characterized by
90+/70+ F surface temperatures/dewpoints, where MLCAPE has reached
3000 J/kg. Coinciding this strong instability are elongated
hodographs and up to 40 kts of effective bulk shear, driven
primarily by stronger mid-level flow. As such, these storms should
continue to further intensify, potentially with damaging gusts and
perhaps an instance or two of large hail. Convective trends are
being monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 33639026 32998746 32458648 31838607 31618616 31518659
31788764 32358884 32848980 33639026