446
ACUS11 KWNS 221628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221628
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Western New York into parts upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221628Z - 221830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of
western/central New York into the upper Ohio Valley. Damaging winds
will be the primary threat. An isolated brief tornado and large hail
may occur with the stronger, more organized activity.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been most intense right ahead of an MCV
tracking into northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York.
Destabilization continues to occur ahead of this activity and
farther south into western Pennsylvania and vicinity. Convection is
likely to continue in close proximity to the MCV as well as
additional development within the Allegheny Mountains. Buoyancy may
be more limited into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia due to
cloud cover. Observed morning soundings from the region showed
mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Deep layer shear this far east
will be weaker given the displacement from the primary synoptic wave
in the Upper Midwest. However, some modest increase in shear should
occur through the day. Storms will be capable of damaging winds
primarily. Some risk for a brief tornado is also evident given
modest low-level hodograph turning on area VAD profiles. Large hail
could occur with the strongest storms, but weak upper-level flow
will likely keep this threat more isolated. A watch may eventually
be needed should convective trends warrant.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON   42257981 43227850 43247715 41577734 40147813 39617857
            39148007 38708090 38748142 38748174 39798164 42257981