198
ACUS11 KWNS 221449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221449
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-221645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0889
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Western AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 221449Z - 221645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm risk is expected to continue for the
next several hour from northwest Arkansas into south-central and
southeast Oklahoma. Hail up to 2.5" in diameter is the primary risk,
with damaging gusts and a tornado or two also possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a three well-developed
supercells along a cold front extending southwestward from northwest
AR through south-central OK. Each of one of these supercells has
shown an intensifying trend over the past hour. The northernmost and
southernmost cells both appear to be behind the boundary, although
the southernmost cell has recently shown a eastward surge that might
indicate a trend towards a more surface-based character. This
eastward surge was already noted in the central supercell moving
into Haskell, Latimer, and Pittsburg Counties. Given the organized
character of these storms, anticipated downstream destabilization,
and persistent strong deep-layer vertical shear, the severe threat
with these storms will likely continue through the remainder of the
morning into the early afternoon. Primary severe risk is expected to
be large to very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter. Damaging gusts
are also possible, particularly if the storms trend towards a linear
mode. Given the presence of supercells, a tornado or two is also
possible.

..Mosier/Hart.. 05/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34489693 35479472 36189316 35989207 34939237 33969310
            33779390 33939546 34039686 34489693