Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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972 ACUS11 KWNS 251604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251603 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251730- Mesoscale Discussion 0949 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Alabama into southwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 251603Z - 251730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A locally higher severe threat may accompany a more robust cluster of thunderstorms moving southeast along the AL/GA border area. A categorical Slight Risk upgrade is anticipated for an increased severe wind/hail risk, with convective trends also being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster of strong multicells and perhaps transient supercells has recently become established in east-central AL, and is poised to continue tracking southeastward early this afternoon. These storms are preceded by an unstable airmass (i.e. MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg), where a modest 500 mb speed max is also passing by. As such, a locally higher overlap of favorable buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will promote at least a locally severe wind and hail threat. In response, a categorical upgrade to Slight Risk will be made in the 1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. Convective trends are also being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending greater storm coverage. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32698620 32748497 32178386 31488332 30898332 30428367 30318433 30568504 31028576 32218635 32698620