010
ACUS11 KWNS 301724
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301724
TXZ000-301930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of north/east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301724Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity through
the afternoon. Strong gusts to 50-65 mph are possible, along with
isolated large hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop early this
afternoon across north into northeast TX to the south and and east
of an outflow boundary and ongoing line of storms near the Red
River. This activity is developing in a very moist airmass (low to
mid 70s F dewpoints). Strong heating into the 80s and midlevel lapse
rates near 7-7.5 C/km are contributing to strong instability
(2000-3000 J/kg). This will support robust updrafts, however,
vertical shear is expected to be somewhat modest with eastward
extent across northeast TX. As a result, stronger updrafts may be
transient and overall storm organization more messy. Nevertheless,
isolated gusts in the 50-65 mph range appear possible, along with a
few instances of large hail. If thunderstorm clusters can organize
via consolidating outflow/cold pool generation, a line of storms may
develop and shift east/southeast. If this occurs, damaging wind
potential will increase. However, this scenario remains uncertain.
Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance within the
next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31039591 30929647 31099719 31369767 32079791 32499797
            32659782 32829753 32959647 32969558 32649491 32249468
            31879467 31289509 31039591