Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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858
ACUS11 KWNS 222021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222020
MIZ000-222115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024
Areas affected...north-central Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222020Z - 222115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65
mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay
over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band
of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI. Lightning
was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east
along a west-east oriented stationary front. Along and south of the
boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range. Ample
deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will
seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it
moves east. An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a
brief tornado are possible with this storm.
..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
LAT...LON 44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446
44088450 44188438