784
ACUS11 KWNS 181912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181912
KSZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1321
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...West Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 181912Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Weather watch issuance is expected by 20Z-21Z, primarily
for a damaging wind and hail threat as storms develop along a cold
front in west-central Kansas.

DISCUSSION...A cold front progressing slowly southeastward through
west-central Kansas is expected to be the focus of severe
thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. The warm
sector ahead of the cold front is characterized by surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s F, and temperatures already warming into the mid to
upper 90s F, resulting in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE that supports deep
convection. The more substantial deep layer shear (45-55 kts) is
confined to the cool side of the boundary, with the warm sector
sector shear being more meager (25-30 kts). As the cold front
continues to progress slowly southeast and the boundary layer ahead
of it continues to warm, thunderstorm development is expected by
20Z. Given the lack of deep layer shear ahead of the cold front, and
boundary parallel shear vectors, storm mode is expected to be
predominantly linear, though storms may exhibit transient supercell
characteristics before growing upscale.

Given the large T/Td spreads in the boundary layer, and high
mixed-layer LCL heights evident in the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP
forecast profiles, damaging wind gusts are expected - a few of which
may be > 65 kts. Given the potential for initial supercell storm
mode and strong buoyancy, a threat for significant hail may develop
with any cells that remain discrete. A tornado threat cannot be
ruled out with any discrete convection in southwest Kansas as
low-level shear will improve as the nocturnal low-level jet
develops.

With increasing severe risk this afternoon likely, a weather watch
is expected.

..Halbert/Lyons/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37930101 38330063 38630014 39019966 39069918 39089851
            39079824 38989803 38749784 38649769 38309762 37899827
            37349939 37090019 37080094 37540103 37930101