646
ACUS11 KWNS 131854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131853
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Areas affected...The High Plains of eastern Colorado...western
Kansas...far northeastern NM...and the Panhandles of Texas and
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 131853Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next 1-3 hours across
the High Plains. Severe wind gusts near 60-75 mph, and perhaps
localized instances of marginally severe hail, may accompany a few
of the thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Rapid warming has led to temperatures climbing into the
upper 90s and low triple digits across the High Plains this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent visible
satellite imagery, radar, and lightning data suggest convective
initiation is underway along a quasi-dryline/surface trough across
far northeastern NM and CO. Farther north across northern CO,
convergence and upslope flow are aiding in additional moist
convection. Finally, to the east across western KS, a few cumulus
are now visible along a prefrontal trough near a surface low. As
more of the area continues to reach convective temperatures, a few
robust updrafts and multicell clusters will be possible.

Although deep layer effective shear is fairly weak across this
region, some stronger mid to upper-level flow and slightly cooler
temperatures aloft over northern CO could support transient
organization and brief marginally severe hail. However, the main
severe concern this afternoon through early this evening will be
severe damaging wind gusts given a deeply mixed boundary layer/very
large DCAPE, especially near western KS and eastern CO where
clustering appears the most likely within a zone of maximum surface
convergence. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   39870338 40300392 40740420 40920435 41360486 41390523
            41380555 41220574 40860576 40550568 40150550 39660526
            39170482 38910442 38660404 38470361 38300337 38230335
            37930328 37650330 36970376 36580404 36320414 35960410
            35710384 35660343 35890289 35990236 36340188 36890122
            37200059 37970015 38549999 39019992 39340008 39470058
            39750179 39870338