393
ACUS11 KWNS 131655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131655
MIZ000-WIZ000-131900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Areas affected...Upper MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131655Z - 131900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and/or hail are possible across
Upper Michigan as thunderstorm coverage increasing this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown a gradually
increasing depth to the cumulus along and just ahead of the cold
front pushing southeastward across the region. Regional radar
imagery and lightning data reveal that convective initiation has
occurred across Marquette County MI as well as the cell that is just
offshore north of the Marquette/Alger county line. Thunderstorm
coverage is expected to increase over the next hour or so as the
airmass continues to destabilize and the front pushes southeastward.
Buoyancy is expected to remain fairly modest with MLCAPE likely
remaining below 1500 J/kg. Deep-layer vertical shear is already
strong, with the MQT VAD sampling over 60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear,
with some additional strengthening possible as mid-level flow
increases. General expectation is for a fast-moving multicellular
mode, with a few isolated storms briefly becoming strong enough to
produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps even an instance or two of
hail. Severe coverage is expected to be limited, likely precluding
the need for watch, but convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Gleason.. 06/13/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...

LAT...LON   46108488 46018527 45878606 45668668 45608765 45788859
            46278912 46748832 46808669 46838566 46798482 46108488