Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 180220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180219
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-180415-
Mesoscale Discussion 1313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Areas affected...Northern NE Panhandle into western/central SD and
southern/central ND
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 180219Z - 180415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe storms may increase with
time tonight.
DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped across northern NE into
southeast SD this evening, with some elevated convection gradually
increasing over southwest SD into extreme eastern WY, and also much
farther north into western ND. An approaching mid/upper-level
shortwave trough and strong southerly low-level jet will support an
increase in elevated convection north of the front with time
tonight. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z LBF
and UNR soundings), moderate to strong elevated buoyancy, and
effective shear of 50+ kt will support organized convection. There
will be some potential for elevated supercells with an attendant
hail threat, though a tendency toward more of a cluster or linear
mode with time could temper hail potential to some extent. Localized
strong/severe gusts will also be possible, especially if organized
upscale growth occurs. Watch issuance is possible over parts of the
area later this evening in response to these threats.
..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
LAT...LON 44960341 47320138 47449978 47119785 45349813 44359851
43929874 43399915 43110053 42920148 42760291 42660393
44960341