Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 182018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182018
MNZ000-182145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
Areas affected...central to northeast MN
Concerning...Tornado Watch 433...
Valid 182018Z - 182145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues.
SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening
appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with
semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front.
DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has
been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple,
low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front
thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may
develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding
indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200
m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging
wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain
marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from
the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions.
..Grams.. 06/18/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043
47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482
45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393